Philip Morris International is the world’s largest tobacco company by volume, with cigarette sales to roughly 170 countries. Despite such dominance, its goal is to completely replace its cigarette sales with reduced-risk alternatives. As of 2025, 41.5% of revenue came from smoke-free products; the aim is two-thirds by 2030. We forecast PMI will reach 49% by 2030, reflecting steady and sizable contributions from combustibles rather than underperformance in reduced-risk.