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Progressive Corp PGR

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Morningstar’s Analysis

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Progressive Still Enjoying Pandemic Tailwind in First Quarter

Brett Horn, CFA Senior Equity Analyst

Analyst Note

| Brett Horn, CFA |

Progressive’s first quarter results were quite strong in an absolute sense. Over the past year, Progressive and its peers have enjoyed abnormal levels of profitability due to the pandemic and a reduction in miles driven. The trailing 12-month ROE of 39% is impressive, even for a narrow moat franchise like Progressive, which has consistently generated solid excess returns. But we expect mean reversion and there were some signs in the quarter that this is starting to occur. We will maintain our $75 fair value estimate.

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Company Profile

Business Description

Progressive underwrites private and commercial auto insurance and specialty lines; it has over 20 million personal auto policies in force and is the fourth- largest auto insurer in the United States. Progressive markets its policies through independent insurance agencies in the U.S. and Canada and directly via the Internet and telephone. Its premiums are split roughly equally between the agent and the direct channel. The company also offers commercial auto policies and entered homeowners insurance through an acquisition in 2015.

6300 Wilson Mills Road
Mayfield Village, OH, 44143
T +1 440 461-5000
Sector Financial Services
Industry Insurance - Property & Casualty
Most Recent Earnings Mar 31, 2021
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2021
Stock Type Aggressive Growth
Employees 43,326