James Hardie's Result Breaks Records, but Weaker Near-Term Outlook Expected
James Hardie's growth strategy includes marketing directly to homeowners, market share growth, and category expansion. We view this as rational and achievable, given past success. We estimate Hardie has about 90% market share in the fiber cement category in its main geography of North America, which contributes about 80% of group operating income. About two-thirds of North American EBIT is from repair and renovation, or R&R, and the remainder is from new house construction. We view the R&R market as less cyclical, with homes needing to be resided approximately every 40 years. According to the US Census Bureau, about half of all houses are 40 years or older. As such, we expect a steady pipeline of homes requiring siding replacement or repairs through the next decade.