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Canadian National Railway Co CNI

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Canadian National’s Carload Recovery Continues in Q4, with Solid OR Gains; but Valuation Lofty

Matthew Young, CFA Equity Analyst

Analyst Note

| Matthew Young, CFA |

Wide-moat Canadian National’s fourth-quarter top line grew 2% year over year (slightly above our forecast), as demand continues to recover. Recall revenue fell 11% last quarter and 19% in the second quarter. Total carloads swung nicely positive, rising 7% (down 5% for all of 2020), while revenue per carload declined 4% on unfavorable carload-mix shifts and falling fuel surcharges, though core pricing is exceeding cost inflation.

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Company Profile

Business Description

Canadian National's railway spans Canada from coast to coast and extends through Chicago to the Gulf of Mexico. In 2019, CN delivered almost 6 million carloads over its 19,600 miles of track. CN generated roughly CAD 14 billion in total revenue by hauling intermodal containers (25% of consolidated revenue), petroleum and chemicals (21%), grain and fertilizers (16%), forest products (12%), metals and mining (11%), automotive shipments (6%), and coal (4%). Other items constitute the remaining revenue.

935 de La Gauchetiere Street West
Montreal, QC, H3B 2M9, Canada
T +1 514 399-7091
Sector Industrials
Industry Railroads
Most Recent Earnings Dec 31, 2020
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2021
Stock Type
Employees 24,381