Analyst Note| Matthew Dolgin, CFA |
While American Tower faced industry headwinds throughout 2020 that slowed sales growth, it had a good fourth quarter that beat FactSet consensus sales and EBITDA estimates and outperformed peers. It also provided a long-term forecast that highlights why we prefer its business to those of its peers, but that should also throw cold water on investors who believe we’re in for supersized growth as U.S. carriers upgrade to 5G networks. We don’t expect to materially change our $190 fair value estimate, as we had already projected an inability for American Tower to maintain recent growth rates in the U.S. If a reset of market expectations brings the firm’s stock price down further, we believe this is the best tower company to own.