We lower our fair value estimate for no-moat Sunrun to $14 per share from $24 following third-quarter results. The lower valuation is a result of lower growth and higher capital costs moving forward, partially offset by a rising battery storage mix. We view shares as slightly undervalued in light of our Very High Uncertainty Rating.
Sunrun is the market leader in residential solar installations with high-teens market share.
Sunrun’s economics are sensitive to customer renewal expectations, which are highly uncertain.
|
Metric
|
RUN
|
SEDG
|
SPWR
|
|---|---|---|---|
Price/Earnings (Normalized) | 89.29 | 10.14 | 138.88 |
Price/Book Value | 0.50 | 1.81 | 1.68 |
Price/Sales | 1.19 | 1.32 | 0.40 |
Price/Cash Flow | — | 10.18 | — |
|
Metric
|
RUN
|
SEDG
|
SPWR
|
|---|---|---|---|
Quick Ratio | 0.59 | 2.37 | 0.63 |
Current Ratio | 1.35 | 3.84 | 1.64 |
Interest Coverage | −3.11 | — | 4.29 |
|
Metric
|
RUN
|
SEDG
|
SPWR
|
|---|---|---|---|
Return on Assets (Normalized) | −6.55% | 8.91% | 0.52% |
Return on Equity (Normalized) | −20.07% | 16.92% | 1.65% |
Return on Invested Capital (Normalized) | −3.93% | 11.35% | 2.59% |
|
Ticker
|
Name
|
Morningstar Rating for Stocks
|
Economic Moat
|
Market Cap
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
FSLR
| First Solar Inc | Bpqjw | $16.9 Bil | |
ENPH
| Enphase Energy Inc | Grl | $13.8 Bil | |
XNYIF
| Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd | Nvtgp | $5.1 Bil | |
XISHY
| Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd ADR | Hgq | $5.1 Bil | |
SEDG
| SolarEdge Technologies Inc | Wwnc | $4.5 Bil | |
GCPEF
| GCL Technology Holdings Ltd | Jhznb | $3.6 Bil | |
NXT
| NEXTracker Inc Ordinary Shares - Class A | Jdpy | $2.5 Bil | |
SHLS
| Shoals Technologies Group Inc Ordinary Shares - Class A | Fyb | $2.4 Bil | |
SPWR
| SunPower Corp | Vjj | $727.0 Mil |
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