In a surprise comeback, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the Brazilian presidential election over the weekend. His victory caught markets off guard, sending them scrambling to adapt to a new political reality.
Underdeveloped consumer finance markets in Latin America could be an opportunity for MercadoLibre to expand its credit revenue faster than expected.
Bears
Increasing competition among fintech lenders could lead to a sudden deceleration in credit revenue growth or a deterioration in credit quality if consumers and small businesses become overextended.
MercadoLibre is the largest e-commerce marketplace in Latin America, with more than 120 million unique active buyers and 1 million active sellers at the end of 2025. The company is roughly split between its e-commerce business, which includes its fulfillment and advertising services, and its fintech segment, which comprises its rapidly expanding payment and digital wallet platform (Mercado Pago) and its lending business (Mercado Credito). While the company operates in 18 countries, its primary markets are Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico, which account for more than 95% of its revenue.