The final DORA III agreement for the period from 2027 to 2031 calls for the full EUR 10 billion of regulated capital expenditures, real tariff increases of 0.33% per year, traffic CAGR of 1.8%, and a regulated weighted average cost of capital of 8.32%.
Aena’s Spanish airport network boasts one of the strongest efficient scale moats in our coverage, and its dual-till framework allows it to earn economic profits from its passenger flow.
Bears
Aena could be free cash flow negative for a few years during the DORA III period, making it vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks.
Aena’s 46 airports in Spain handle 99.9% of the country's air traffic. Its three busiest airports—Madrid-Barajas, Barcelona-El Prat, and Palma de Mallorca—account for roughly half of Spain’s passengers. The dual-till framework in Spain leaves its commercial and real estate businesses completely unregulated, allowing the group to monetize its passenger flow and earn economic rents. It is launching a transformational EUR 13 billion DORA III investment cycle (2027-31) to expand capacity across its Spanish network. The group also controls three airports in the UK (Luton, Leeds Bradford, and Newcastle) and 18 airports in Brazil. It has minority holdings in 12 airports in Mexico and two in Jamaica through its 6.4% look-through stake in Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico.