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Alumina Ltd AWC

Rating as of

Morningstar’s Analysis

Valuation
Currency in AUD
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1-Star Price

PREMIUM

5-Star Price

PREMIUM

Economic Moat

PREMIUM

Capital Allocation

PREMIUM

Solid Cost Position For Alumina in 2020 but we Reduce FVE to AUD 1.32 on Currency Strength.

Mark Taylor Senior Equity Analyst

Analyst Note

| Mark Taylor |

No-moat Alumina delivered a 2020 result that reflects its competitive cost position amid declining alumina prices. NPAT of USD 146.6 million fell 31% versus the previous year, as a 5% improvement in unit cash costs to USD 199 per tonne was more than offset by alumina price weakness. This led to alumina EBITDA in the company’s operating joint venture Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals, or AWAC, declining 45% to USD 69 per tonne. Encouragingly, the average realised alumina price of USD 268 per tonne in 2020 tracked our long-run forecast of USD 270 (in 2020 dollars), and we estimate AWAC generated alumina cash EBITDA margins of about 28%, better than our prior long-term projection of 25%. As such, we’ve raised our estimate for cash margins to 28%. However, we trim our fair value estimate to AUD 1.32 from AUD 1.45 due to appreciation in the Australian dollar since our last update (Alumina reports its financials in U.S. dollars).

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Company Profile

Business Description

Alumina Ltd. is a forwarding office for Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals' distributions. Its profit is a 40% equity share of AWAC profit, less head office and interest expenses. Its cash flow consists of AWAC distributions. AWAC investments include substantial global bauxite reserves and alumina refining operations. Declining capital and operating costs and a lack of supply discipline from China are likely to result in continued poor returns on invested capital, despite AWC's position in the lowest quartile of the industry cost curve.

Contact
60 City Road, Level 12, IBM Centre
Southbank, VIC, 3006, Australia
T +61 386992600
Sector Basic Materials
Industry Aluminum
Most Recent Earnings
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2020
Stock Type
Employees 5,500

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