Analyst Note
| Angus Hewitt |Shares in ARB continue to screen as expensive following the release of worse-than-expected fiscal 2023 results. Net profit after tax, or NPAT, fell 28% on fiscal 2022 to AUD 88 million—10% below our forecast. While the 3% top-line decline was broadly as expected, the sharply higher cost base weighed on profitability more than we anticipated. We expect margin pressure to persist into next year and lower our fiscal 2024 NPAT forecast by 4% to AUD 102 million. Nevertheless, the reduction in our near-term earnings forecasts is broadly offset by the time value of money, and we maintain our AUD 24.50 fair value estimate.