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Ampol Ltd ALD

Morningstar Rating
A$39.79 +0.32 (0.81%)
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Company Report

Ampol Earnings: Strong Shop Performance Despite Decline in Tobacco

Our AUD 35 fair value estimate for no-moat Ampol stands. That’s despite Australia’s largest refined fuel retailer reporting lower-than-expected underlying 2023 net profit after tax, down 3% to AUD 289 million against our AUD 334 million target. We read no long-term implications. A better-than-expected performance from convenience retail was more than offset by a worse outcome from fuels and infrastructure, with lower margins featuring. We expect the latter to normalize over the next couple of years. Earnings declined at Lytton refinery and improvements at Z Energy in New Zealand were largely as expected.

Price vs Fair Value

ALD is trading at a 14% premium.
Price
A$39.76
Fair Value
A$47.00
Uncertainty
Medium
1-Star Price
A$26.12
5-Star Price
A$82.70
Economic Moat
Pzvpq
Capital Allocation
Ldtmlwxy

Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls

Ampol is well-placed, with a leading market share in transport fuels. This position is backed by an extensive distribution network.

Bears

Ampol earnings are subject to influences outside of management control--currency, crude oil prices, and the Singapore refiner margin.

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Trading Information

Previous Close Price
A$39.47
Day Range
A$39.5039.90
52-Week Range
A$28.5740.91
Bid/Ask
A$39.58 / A$39.93
Market Cap
A$9.48 Bil
Volume/Avg
663,099 / 765,719

Key Statistics

Price/Earnings (Normalized)
12.77
Price/Sales
0.25
Dividend Yield (Trailing)
5.40%
Dividend Yield (Forward)
5.40%
Total Yield
5.40%

Company Profile

Ampol (nee Caltex) is the largest and only Australian-listed petroleum refiner and distributor, with operations in all states and territories. It was a major international brand of Chevron's until that 50% owner sold out in 2015. Caltex transitioned to Ampol branding due to Chevron terminating its licence to use the Caltex brand in Australia. Ampol has operated for more than 100 years. It owns and operates a refinery at Lytton in Brisbane, but closed Sydney's Kurnell refinery to focus on the more profitable distribution/retail segment. It successfully completed a NZD 2.0 billion bid for New Zealand peer Z Energy in first-half 2022.
Sector
Energy
Industry
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Stock Style Box
Mid Value
Total Number of Employees
8,790

Competitors

Valuation

Metric
ALD
SHELL
BP
Price/Earnings (Normalized)
12.773.977.85
Price/Book Value
2.661.191.53
Price/Sales
0.250.710.53
Price/Cash Flow
6.295.393.13
Price/Earnings
ALD
SHELL
BP

Financial Strength

Metric
ALD
SHELL
BP
Quick Ratio
0.570.900.71
Current Ratio
1.211.401.21
Interest Coverage
3.557.406.81
Quick Ratio
ALD
SHELL
BP

Profitability

Metric
ALD
SHELL
BP
Return on Assets (Normalized)
5.73%6.70%4.93%
Return on Equity (Normalized)
21.08%14.92%19.64%
Return on Invested Capital (Normalized)
12.42%10.59%10.75%
Return on Assets
ALD
SHELL
BP
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