We are updating our long-term ASML forecasts as the firm intends to expand Low-NA EUV and DUV immersion capacity by 30% in 2027 and another potential 30% in 2028.
ASML’s machines can last 30 years, providing recurring service revenue. The switching costs and intangible assets required to displace these machines are enormous, with no competitor coming close to ASML’s technological leadership.
Bears
ASML sells a low-volume, high-price product. Lithography machines represent a high proportion of customer costs, so if the company fails to innovate, customers will look for alternatives.
ASML is the leader in lithography systems for manufacturing semiconductors with 90% market share. Lithography is the process in which a light source is used to expose circuit patterns from a photo mask onto a semiconductor wafer. Lithography allows chipmakers to increase the number of transistors on the same area of silicon, with lithography historically representing a high portion of the cost of making cutting-edge chips. ASML outsources the manufacturing of most of its parts, acting like an assembler. ASML’s largest clients are TSMC, Samsung, and Intel.