Analyst Note| Denise Molina, CFA |
We've updated our model following Siemens' fourth-quarter results and are maintaining our fair value estimate and narrow moat rating. Fourth-quarter results did not bring many surprises, as Healthineers reported earlier and management had previously flagged expected solid results from mobility but more modest growth from digital industries due to COVID-19-related restrictions and tough comparisons. Looking into next year, we expect reported revenue to decline again with underlying revenue growth that is relatively modest, given the uneven economic recoveries in Europe and the United States versus China, as well as a negative currency impact. Management was also cautious on its outlook, perhaps conservatively so, since current visibility from customer demand depends on shifting government restrictions to manage the pandemic. The digital industries and smart infrastructure divisions are more exposed to short-cycle demand volatility than mobility and Healthineers. Mobility benefits from a decent backlog of rolling stock projects from prior deals that it is still working through, including rolling stock for the Deutsche Bahn intercity trains and also some metro and light rail cars.