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Morningstar Raises Fair Value for Comcast After Strong Quarter

The wide-moat media company is still not a bargain, though.

Steady cable results, continued theme park strength, and exceptional performance at the box office marked

Comcast lost 69,000 net television customers during the quarter, a sharp improvement from a year ago (144,000 net losses) in what is typically the seasonally weakest period of the year. This improvement is impressive in light of the relatively weak performance in the television business over the past two quarters and the overall maturity of the market. Rival Verizon, by contrast, posted its weakest television customer growth during the quarter since it entered the business a decade ago. The X1 platform, which nearly a third of Comcast's triple-play customers now use, and efforts to improve customer service have clearly provided a benefit to the firm.

Internet access customer growth remains very strong with net additions of 180,000, in line with the trend seen in recent years. Again, Comcast easily bested Verizon on this metric, as its rival lost 25,000 net customers during the quarter. Revenue per Internet access customer continues to increase at a solid clip, up 3.7% versus a year ago.

The fantastic performance of Furious 7 and Jurassic World at the box office fueled a 20% jump in revenue at NBCU versus a year ago. Theme park revenue increased 26% year over year. On the negative side, both the cable and broadcast television network segments saw revenue decline during the quarter, with cable ad revenue down 3% versus a year ago. We continue to believe that trends in the cable networks warrant careful attention, as this segment drives nearly two-thirds of NBCU profits.

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About the Author

Michael Hodel

Director of Equity Research, Media & Telecom
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Michael Hodel, CFA, is director of communications services equity research for Morningstar Research Services, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. He covers U.S. telecom service providers and related firms, including AT&T, Verizon, and Comcast. His team covers media companies, global telecom service providers, and owners of telecom infrastructure, such as wireless towers and data centers.

Hodel joined Morningstar in 1998. Prior to his current position, he spent two years as a portfolio manager for Morningstar Investment Management, LLC. Previously, he served as a technology strategist responsible for telecom research, chair of Morningstar’s Economic Moat Committee, and a senior member of Morningstar’s corporate credit ratings initiative.

Hodel holds a bachelor’s degree in finance, with highest honors, from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.

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