A Hard Landing for Embraer

Narrow-moat

Revenue in the quarter at $1.73 billion was down nearly 15% versus the fourth quarter of 2016 with lower sales across all business segments. Adjusted EBIT, which excludes certain nonrecurring items, stood at $133 million in the quarter, translating into a 400-basis-point contraction in adjusted margins to 7.7%.

For full-year 2017, Embraer delivered 101 commercial aircraft (down 7 aircraft year over year due to lower E-175 deliveries) and 109 executive jets (down 8 aircraft year over year). On the back of these deliveries, 2017 revenue decreased 6% year over year to $5.84 billion. Adjusted EBIT stood at $397 million, which is well below the $450 million-$500 million range management had been guiding to for 2017. By way of comparison, management's midpoint EBIT guidance for 2018 stands at $312 million.

Finally, Embraer didn't shed much light on its ongoing discussions with Boeing. We believe a JV focused on commercial aircraft remains the most likely outcome and we could see this linked with the launch of Boeing's possible next generation midsize aircraft. Embraer's stock has held most of its gains after the Boeing discussions surfaced; if the deal falls apart, we think shares would pull back a bit.

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