Expect Boeing to Steal the Show in Paris

We’re attending the Paris Air Show next week. Between Airbus and

We’d be surprised if sales at Paris come in higher than the 742 commercial aircraft orders and commitments (Boeing and Airbus combined for 286 firm orders) at the Farnborough Air Show last year, and we think wide-body orders will be particularly slow. However, the MAX-10, which represents Boeing’s gambit to compete with the dominant Airbus A321neo, may stimulate orders. Rumors point to Lion Air (an Indonesian carrier with over 200 737 orders on the books) as the MAX-10 launch customer.

Turning to lower-end narrow bodies and to regional jets, we still think the Bombardier C Series needs more orders. Just one year ago, the program seemed to be enjoying significant momentum following Delta and Air Canada orders. However, the aircraft has failed to garner significant orders since, and we see open production slots emerging as early as 2020. Given the thinning backlogs Embraer faces for its regional aircraft, additional E-jet orders would be a welcome development at the show.

Finally, we’re also expecting aircraft manufacturers to expound on opportunities they see in the aftermarket. Facing an order slowdown, Boeing, Embraer, and Airbus have begun more aggressively pursuing opportunities in the services realm, but the path to capturing significant growth remains challenging in our view.

Morningstar Premium Members gain exclusive access to our full analyst reports, including fair value estimates, bull and bear breakdowns, and risk analyses. Not a Premium Member? Get this and other reports immediately when you try Morningstar Premium free for 14 days.