Covid Vaccine Market: CDC Advisory Committee Preserves Access but Removes Recommendation

At a Sept. 19 meeting, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices voted to recommend healthcare provider consultation prior to covid vaccination for individuals six months and older but voted against requiring a prescription.

Why it matters: The committee’s recommendation for individual decision-making for covid vaccines (rather than prior recommendations supporting vaccination) could weigh on demand for Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna’s vaccines.

• If signed off on by acting CDC Director Jim O’Neill, the vote likely means that seniors and high-risk individuals can consult a pharmacist and get vaccinated at the pharmacy. However, the close vote on requiring a prescription (a 6-6 split, broken by Chair Martin Kulldorff) highlights internal conflict.
• While the long-term implications for insurance coverage are unclear, we think near-term coverage will remain stable, particularly given the Sept. 16 announcement from trade organization America’s Health Insurance Plans that it will honor old ACIP recommendations through 2026.

The bottom line: We’re maintaining our fair value estimates for narrow-moat Pfizer ($36) and no-moat BioNTech ($100) and Moderna ($61) following the committee’s votes. We expect the 2025-26 covid vaccine market to be focused even more on high-risk individuals, consistent with updated US Food and Drug Administration labels.

• While we think enthusiasm over BioNTech’s oncology pipeline has guided its shares close to our fair value estimate, we think the market undervalues the potential of Moderna’s mRNA-based pipeline and the potential of Pfizer’s diverse portfolio, oncology pipeline potential, and 7% dividend yield.
• We think Moderna and BioNTech continue to warrant Very High Uncertainty Ratings, partly due to US vaccine policy risks as well as potential high-risk programs in areas like oncology and rare diseases.