BioMarin Earnings: Strong Voxzogo Growth and Roctavian Launch Poised to Begin

BioMarin’s BMRN second-quarter revenue increased 12% to nearly $600 million, consistent with sales in the first quarter, and we think this puts the firm in a good position to meet our forecast of roughly $2.4 billion for the full year, as ongoing launches of achondroplasia drug Voxzogo and hemophilia A gene therapy support the firm’s narrow moat rating. We’re maintaining our $96 fair value estimate.

Voxzogo continues to exceed management’s expectations, due to uptake in markets like Japan and Brazil, and we’ve slightly raised our forecast to $435 million, near the high end of the new guidance of $400 million-$440 million. We expect BioMarin to gain expanded approval to serve younger patients in the United States and Europe later this year, broadening the drug’s opportunity in the near term, as well as potential expansion into other forms of short stature over the next few years. For example, BioMarin highlighted the expected start of a phase 3 trial in the fourth quarter in hypochondroplasia, another genetic statural condition. Management said that its capacity to fill vials and package is a bit constrained for Voxzogo, but we’re encouraged by the clarification that there is enough supply to surpass consensus sales in 2024 and return to normal supply (with additional help from a contract manufacturer) by 2025. Management maintained guidance for hemophilia gene therapy Roctavian at $50 million-$150 million as it works to secure reimbursement in Europe this year and awaits U.S. patients beginning to start therapy in August and September. We model roughly $90 million in sales for the year, due to slower uptake in Europe and delays in the U.S. Beyond Voxzogo and Roctavian, we are awaiting further data before adding new programs to our valuation model, as most drug candidates are either in early development or just entering development later this year.