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Bank of America Positioned for Consumer Rebound

Market-related revenue declines are likely temporary, but most noninterest expense reductions will be permanent, says Morningstar's Jim Sinegal.

Market volatility in the first quarter took a toll on

Bank of America remains quite sensitive to the level of interest rates, disclosing that a 100-basis-point upward movement in the yield curve would produce an additional $6 billion in net interest income. On this front, we think credit expansion during the quarter is a welcome sign. Average consumer banking loans and leases grew 8% over the past 12 months, reflecting an industrywide increase in loan demand. We continue to believe that consumer credit expansion will be a key driver of both economic growth and the normalization of interest rates. As the largest retail deposit-taker in the United States, Bank of America is well positioned to benefit from a rebound in consumer demand and the housing market. The bank's legacy assets and servicing business produced $860 million in noninterest expense in the first quarter, down 30% over the course of the year. With delinquent mortgages serviced by this segment falling 42% over the same period, further improvements in the housing market should continue to reduce the expense burden.

Credit quality remains good overall, with nonperforming loans increasing by only $400 million over the past 12 months, driven mainly by energy. The company seems to have little exposure to the most aggressive corners of auto lending; originations in the first quarter were made at an average FICO score of 778. Other areas of consumer lending--credit card, mortgage, and home equity--seem similarly conservative. We thus see little to fear in the bank's consumer book.

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About the Author

Jim Sinegal

Senior Equity Analyst

Jim Sinegal is a senior equity analyst for Morningstar Research Services LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. He covers the banking and payment industries.

Before joining Morningstar in 2007, Sinegal worked for a middle-market investment bank and co-founded a software company.

Sinegal holds a bachelor’s degree in biology from the University of Southern California. He also holds a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Pittsburgh, where he received the Stipanovich Award as the program’s outstanding student in finance and the Robinson Prize for academic and professional excellence.

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