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Ampol Ltd ALD

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Stock XASX Rating as of
A$35.29 +0.10 (0.28%)
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As of Delayed Price Closed
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Company Report

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Ampol: Improved Convenience Margins More Than Offset Volume Decline

Mark Taylor

We marginally raise our 2024 earnings per share forecast to AUD 3.74 with no-moat Ampol’s first-quarter 2024 trading result. However, our AUD 35 fair value estimate stands, with our midcycle estimates largely unchanged. The 2024 EPS forecast equates to a P/E of 10 at the current share price, and our AUD 2.25 dividend per share forecast translates to a healthy 6.0% fully franked yield. That doesn’t include the potential for another special eventually being declared—Ampol paid an AUD 0.60 per share special in 2023.

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Price vs Fair Value

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ALD is trading at a 1% premium.
Price
A$35.29
Fair Value
A$87.00
Uncertainty
Medium
1-Star Price
A$18.49
5-Star Price
A$81.70
Economic Moat
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Capital Allocation
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Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls

Ampol is well-placed, with a leading market share in transport fuels. This position is backed by an extensive distribution network.

Bears

Ampol earnings are subject to influences outside of management control--currency, crude oil prices, and the Singapore refiner margin.

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Trading Information

Previous Close Price
A$35.19
Day Range
A$35.25–35.88
52-Week Range
A$28.57–42.35
Bid/Ask
A$37.08 / A$31.77
Market Cap
A$8.41 Bil
Volume/Avg
916,900 / 891,039

Key Statistics

Price/Earnings (Normalized)
11.32
Price/Sales
0.22
Dividend Yield (Trailing)
6.09%
Dividend Yield (Forward)
6.09%
Total Yield
6.09%

Company Profile

Ampol (nee Caltex) is the largest and only Australian-listed petroleum refiner and distributor, with operations in all states and territories. It was a major international brand of Chevron's until that 50% owner sold out in 2015. Caltex transitioned to Ampol branding due to Chevron terminating its licence to use the Caltex brand in Australia. Ampol has operated for more than 100 years. It owns and operates a refinery at Lytton in Brisbane, but closed Sydney's Kurnell refinery to focus on the more profitable distribution/retail segment. It successfully completed a NZD 2.0 billion bid for New Zealand peer Z Energy in first-half 2022.
Sector
Energy
Industry
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Stock Style Box
Mid Value
Total Number of Employees
8,790
Website
https://www.ampol.com.au

Competitors

Valuation

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Metric
ALD
VEA
SHELL
Price/Earnings (Normalized)
 11.3218.159.10
Price/Book Value
 2.362.601.25
Price/Sales
 0.220.250.80
Price/Cash Flow
 5.589.555.64
Price/Earnings
ALD
VEA
SHELL

Financial Strength

Metric
ALD
VEA
SHELL
Quick Ratio
 0.570.530.99
Current Ratio
 1.211.001.42
Interest Coverage
 3.551.106.66
Quick Ratio
ALD
VEA
SHELL

Profitability

Metric
ALD
VEA
SHELL
Return on Assets (Normalized)
 5.73%0.68%6.37%
Return on Equity (Normalized)
 21.08%2.77%13.96%
Return on Invested Capital (Normalized)
 12.42%4.53%9.93%
Return on Assets
ALD
VEA
SHELL
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