Jeffrey Stafford, CFA

Jeffrey Stafford, CFA, is a regional director for Morningstar.

More From Jeffrey Stafford

We're trimming our fair value estimate for the wide-moat company following a cut to our near-term cash flow forecast.

With the Monsanto-Bayer deal added to the mix, the probability that each of the proposed seed and crop chemical tie-ups will be approved has decreased somewhat.

Regulatory concerns aren't much of a hurdle because of the lack of broad overlap between the portfolios of these agriculture companies.

Regulatory concerns aren't much of a hurdle because of the lack of broad overlap between the portfolios of these agriculture companies.

Although the oil and gas sale to Anadarko strengthens the no-moat miner's balance sheet, it does nothing to solve Freeport's bigger problem--decelerating Chinese copper demand.

In this "merger of equals," we would expect to award the combined company a narrow moat, based on cost advantages in potash for both companies and Agrium's solid cost position in nitrogen.

Although the chance of a tie-up has increased, we're sticking with stand-alone fair values for now as we think Bayer is already toward the upper end of what it's willing to pay for Monsanto.

If the deal goes through, we would expect to award the combined company a narrow moat rating, based on cost advantages in potash for both PotashCorp and Agrium, and Agrium's solid cost position in nitrogen.

We think the market will eventually appreciate the ag giant's long-term value and growth prospects.

More About Jeffrey Stafford

Jeffrey Stafford, CFA, is regional director for Morningstar*. Stafford leads the North America equity research team of roughly 60 analysts and associates. Previously, he was a sector director for energy and utilities equity research. He has also covered agriculture, chemical, mining, and healthcare companies at Morningstar.

Before joining Morningstar in 2007, Stafford was a financial analyst for an asset-management firm, handling performance reporting and treasury functions.

Stafford holds a bachelor’s degree in finance from the University of Notre Dame Mendoza College of Business and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He also holds Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.

* Morningstar Research Services LLC (“Morningstar”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc

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