The 5 big voting issues in the midterm elections that will impact your wallet

By Victor Reklaitis and Robert Schroeder

America won't be picking a president Nov. 3, but this is how the voting results could affect fuel prices, taxes and more

Next week's midterm elections are likely to have an effect on things including energy prices, healthcare and AI policy.

Americans don't give the same level of attention to midterm elections that they devote to picking a president, but the outcomes on Nov. 3 are likely to affect people's finances in at least five key areas.

While the executive branch will remain in the hands of President Donald Trump's Republican Party, the House of Representatives is widely expected to flip to Democratic control. Forecasts for the Senate aren't as confident - and in any case, plenty of election predictions have flopped in the last decade - but Democrats appear somewhat favored to win back that chamber of Congress as well.

Below we look at what the election results could mean for fuel prices, taxes (including import taxes), healthcare expenses, housing costs and the artificial-intelligence boom that's shaking up the job market and the power grid.

1. Gasoline and diesel prices

What Democrats would do: With high fuel prices frustrating voters, Democrats plan to step up challenges to Trump's handling of the Iran war if they win congressional majorities. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, the New York Democrat who is in a strong position to be the next House speaker if his party wins that chamber, recently doubled down on the Democrats' plan to use war powers resolutions and other legislative moves to end the war in Iran.

High gasoline prices have also led some Democrats to call for suspending fuel taxes or building more clean-energy projects.

Americans want action. A Fox News poll in September found 61% of voters view gasoline prices as a major problem, up from 48% two years ago.

Ending both the conflict with Iran and the war between Russia and Ukraine is the key to lower prices, according to Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. This year has now seen more days with average gasoline prices over $4 a gallon than any other year, De Haan recently noted.

"That's a tough barometer that Americans are not very forgiving on," De Haan told MarketWatch.

What Trump and Republicans would do: Some Republicans in battleground states have pressed Trump to pause diesel exports to help cut energy costs, although experts have warned that such a move could backfire. The president hasn't taken that step, but he has made an effort to waive sanctions on Russian diesel and opened a path for widespread use on highways of what's known as red-dyed diesel, a tax-exempt fuel meant for off-road uses such as agriculture. Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, have said gasoline prices will come down as soon as the war with Iran ends - and the president has predicted that will happen after the midterms.

Analysts, however, don't see a clear timeline for ending the Iran war.

"We'll get through the midterms, and the Iranians will not capitulate as Trump has been indicating," Tobin Marcus of Wolfe Research wrote in a recent note. "Trump will resume his threats of escalation, but he likely will not go back to war. When the situation deteriorates, diplomatic efforts will intensify, but the situation won't deteriorate enough to catalyze a deal any time soon."

2. Healthcare expenses

The cost of healthcare ranks as the No. 1 economic concern among voters, just barely edging out pain at the gas pump, according to one poll. A KFF poll in September found that 60% of voters are very worried or somewhat worried about handling healthcare expenses, while 59% expressed that type of concern about paying for gasoline and other transportation expenses.

What Democrats would do: If Democrats win control of the House and Senate, they are likely to pass a significant healthcare-focused bill in 2027, according to Kim Monk, an analyst at Capital Alpha Partners.

The bill would aim to undo the Medicaid cuts in last year's GOP megalaw, as well as restore the now-expired enhanced Obamacare subsidies that played a leading role in the most recent government shutdown. Democrats would use a process known as reconciliation that would allow them to pass their bill with a simple Senate majority.

Trump would be expected to veto this Democratic healthcare bill, but the legislation would still have a real impact, according to Monk. She sees it serving as a starting point both for Democrats' 2028 platform and for an even bigger healthcare package in 2029 if Republicans lose the next presidential election.

If Democrats only win the House in this fall's midterms, Monk predicted that the party still would pass a healthcare bill, but "that's kind of where it ends - in the House - so that's all really about 2028 positioning."

Other analysts see Democrats actually managing to undo some Medicaid cuts and restore some enhanced Obamacare subsidies in 2027 through a deal with Trump on raising the debt ceiling. Republicans are expected to make an effort to lift the federal government's borrowing limit during the so-called lame-duck session that runs after the midterms through early January, but they might not be able to do it, which would leave the issue to the new Congress.

If Democrats control at least one chamber of Congress, there could be a deal on the debt limit or government funding that "softens" Medicaid cuts or brings back some Obamacare subsidies, Evercore ISI analysts said in a note.

What Trump and Republicans would do: If the GOP keeps its grip on both chambers of Congress in the midterms, what might the party do on healthcare? It may not focus much on this area, according to Capital Alpha's Monk. "It tends to not be as high of a priority for Republicans," she told MarketWatch.

Trump has repeatedly touted his drug-pricing deals with pharmaceutical companies, but analysts have not been wowed by them. Monk said there has not yet been much benefit for consumers, but that could still come in the future. She doesn't expect many more agreements with drug companies, saying the administration "has achieved their near-term goals in terms of making deals."

3. Housing costs and mortgage rates

What Democrats would do: If Democrats control both the House and Senate, proposals that could get attention include subsidized financing for first-time homebuyers and a tax credit to encourage workforce housing, according to Jaret Seiberg of TD Cowen.

Democrats capturing the House and Republicans keeping the Senate may mean conflicting measures to boost construction and increase affordability, Seiberg wrote in a recent note.

The possibility for bipartisanship on housing has recent precedent, however. Over the summer, Democrats and Republicans voted for a bill that among other things restricts institutional investors from buying large numbers of homes. The measure was wildly popular, with 75% of voters backing it in a Wall Street Journal survey. But it's not a quick fix: Full implementation of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act could take years, analysts say.

What Trump and Republicans would do: With less than two weeks until Election Day, Trump signed an executive order aimed at cutting the costs of ownership and mortgages for single-family homes.

The order, signed Oct. 22, directs the Federal Housing Finance Agency to launch a pilot program that would automatically cancel borrowers' mortgage-insurance premiums once they meet certain equity requirements. It also expands a title-insurance waiver program in a bid to reduce refinancing costs.

Americans can expect more from the White House on housing after the midterms, another analyst says.

"I think most of what you'll see in housing policy will have to come from the administration, via the [Federal Housing Finance Agency] or perhaps [the Department of Housing and Urban Development]," said Ian Katz, managing director of Capital Alpha Partners.

Trump is also likely to continue to press the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates - even as the central bank did the opposite in September, raising its benchmark rate for the first time in three years. Cutting rates makes borrowing less expensive.

Meanwhile, as MarketWatch has reported, Americans will vote on more housing-related ballot measures this November than they have in 20 years.

Now see: Midterm voters haven't seen this many housing proposals on the ballot in 20 years

4. Taxes - including import taxes

What Democrats would do: One priority for Democrats will be restoring green-energy tax credits - and that could happen if they're in a position to make a deal with Trump on the debt limit. That's according to Henrietta Treyz, director of economic policy at Veda Partners.

Treyz also predicts Democrats will take a shot at Trump's import taxes, starting with his tariffs on Canadian goods, which have been criticized by some Republicans. "I bet they could force a number of votes on the Canada tariffs and then maybe expand that out to a couple other countries as well," she told MarketWatch. Treyz suggested there could be a chance of ending the import taxes targeting Canada thanks to sufficient bipartisan support. "If Dems were able to start the conversation, I think a lot of Republicans would vote for it," she said.

Monk of Capital Alpha - who expects a healthcare bill from Democrats if they win at least one chamber of Congress - sees a push for certain tax hikes to cover the high cost of such a bill. She said Democrats could pursue some tax increases on high earners and corporations, and possibly an increase in what's called the net investment income tax, or NIIT, but she doesn't expect that there would be enough support to override a presidential veto.

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10-26-26 0930ET