This Senate race where data centers are a crucial issue has more spending than any other midterm clash

By Victor Reklaitis

Money is pouring in and funding intense, negative ads: 'It's everywhere, and you can't escape it'

Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown (left), a former senator, is facing Republican incumbent Jon Husted (right) in their closely watched and expensive U.S. Senate race.

Ohio Democratic Senate candidate Sherrod Brown drew $23.1 million in donations in the third quarter - almost five times the $4.8 million raised by his Republican opponent, incumbent Sen. Jon Husted, according to disclosures filed Thursday.

But Husted continues to have an advantage over Brown when it comes to support from super PACs and other outside groups. AdImpact, an ad-tracking company, estimates that the Republican is benefiting from a total of $246.2 million in past and future ad reservations, while his Democratic rival is getting $176.5 million in such reservations.

Overall, the Ohio Senate race is ranking as the most expensive general-election contest this year, with a total of $422.6 million in past and future ad reservations, according to AdImpact. That's ahead of the $324.7 million in such reservations for the Texas Senate race, which has generated headlines because of billionaire Elon Musk's $158 million in donations to support Republican candidate Ken Paxton in his battle against Democrat James Talarico.

"I don't think Ohio voters would be surprised to hear that this is the most expensive Senate race in the country because of the inescapable advertising," said Melissa Miller, a professor of political science at Bowling Green State University in northwestern Ohio. "Money is just pouring into the state of Ohio, and that's why the messaging has gotten so intense, so negative. It's everywhere, and you can't escape it."

The Ohio contest is following a nationwide trend in battleground Senate races of Democratic candidates drawing more donations to their campaigns than their GOP opponents, while Republicans enjoy an edge in supportive spending by outside groups like super PACs. The campaign-level advantage is encouraging for Democrats because it's a sign of voter enthusiasm - and because campaigns pay lower rates for ads than super PACs, so they get more bang for their buck.

But big spending by super PACs has a real impact as well, and in Husted's case it includes a cryptocurrency-industry super PAC's plan to shell out $45 million to defeat Brown, along with Senate Republicans' super PAC promise of $79 million in spending.

While Ohioans say they're most concerned about the economy and inflation, data centers also have been a key issue in the state's Senate race. Brown, a former U.S. senator for Ohio, launched an ad campaign in July that accused Husted of bringing data centers to their state when he was lieutenant governor. That campaign has continued with a fresh ad criticizing Husted for a Google (GOOGL) (GOOG) data center in Ohio - though Husted's allies have responded by noting Brown previously accepted campaign contributions tied to Google. In addition, Husted has touted his sponsorship of a bill that aims to ensure that Americans don't have to pay for the electricity needed for new data centers, which are essential to the booming artificial-intelligence industry.

Republicans and outside groups that support them are outspending their Democratic rivals to buy advertising for battleground Senate races, according to AdImpact, an ad-tracking company.

A Bowling Green State poll that was released Friday found that Brown had a 6-point lead over Husted among likely Ohio voters, getting 48% support to the Republican's 42%.

"The momentum seems to be on the side of Democrat Sherrod Brown, who has slowly and incrementally opened up a lead that is outside of the margin of error," Miller said, referring to the poll's margin of error of 4 percentage points. But she said the race was too tight to predict a winner.

Brown's chance of winning was around 65% on Friday, up from just 54% a month ago, according to data from prediction market Kalshi. Another prediction market, Polymarket, was giving the same likelihood. (Polymarket has a data partnership with MarketWatch publisher Dow Jones.)

Democrats' likelihood of winning control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the Nov. 3 midterm elections was at 62% on Kalshi on Friday, and at 63% on Polymarket.

Now read: A big AI super PAC tried to follow crypto's playbook to influence the midterms. Critics say it's not working out.

-Victor Reklaitis

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10-16-26 1743ET