A big AI super PAC tried to follow crypto's playbook to influence the midterms. Critics say it's not working out.

By Victor Reklaitis

The political action committee says it's 'continuing to build a durable coalition that wants America to remain the global leader in AI development'

The artificial-intelligence industry has tried to follow in the crypto sector's footsteps in working to influence elections.

A big super PAC launched last year with expectations that it would achieve for the artificial-intelligence industry what a similar political action committee accomplished in 2024 for cryptocurrencies.

But the AI super PAC, called Leading the Future, has had to deal with OpenAI co-founder Greg Brockman and his wife cancelling a planned second donation of $25 million following criticism from OpenAI employees who favor more regulation for their industry.

It's also showing a relatively restrained level of engagement in November's general elections for the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate, as it backs Democratic and Republican candidates in noncompetitive races. That's after making waves in primary contests earlier this year - most prominently in spending in a House primary to defeat New York Democrat Alex Bores, an assemblyman known for sponsoring his state's new AI law.

The crypto super PAC, on the other hand, spent in the 2024 general election to unseat then-Sen. Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat known for taking a skeptical stance on virtual currencies. With nearly $200 million in outlays two years ago to support crypto's fans and oppose crypto's critics, that super PAC, called Fairshake, helped deliver a much more favorable environment in Washington for its industry.

Critics of Leading the Future view the AI super PAC as having to tread more carefully than expected in the midterm elections because of a bipartisan backlash this year against both AI and data centers, which are essential to the booming industry.

"I think they are being forced to back down," said Jeff Hauser, executive director of the Revolving Door Project, a left-of-center think tank that opposes corporate influence in politics. Leading the Future has a large amount of money, but AI has become increasingly unpopular and important as a political issue, so candidates "do not want their support," Hauser told MarketWatch. Initially, Leading the Future "definitely intended to deploy the same playbook" as Fairshake, he added.

Leading the Future's strategists "weren't able to be as aggressive as maybe they wanted, because fundamentally the ground moved underneath them," said Kyle Morse, deputy executive director of the Tech Oversight Project, a left-of-center watchdog organization.

"AI is just a fundamentally different can of worms than crypto. Most people don't interact with crypto on a regular basis, but AI is meeting people at their doorsteps," Morse told MarketWatch. People have fears of losing their jobs to AI, are worried about facing higher utility bills due to energy-hungry data centers, and feel frustrated about taxpayer-funded handouts for those facilities, he said.

Leading the Future didn't answer questions about the cancelled $25 million donation, its spending in noncompetitive races and whether it's backing down. Instead, the super PAC offered a general statement to MarketWatch, saying: "Leading the Future's mission has always been to build a deep bench of pro-innovation champions who can work together in Congress to advance a strong, responsible national regulatory AI framework. That mission continues as we look forward to welcoming new members to Congress, celebrating the re-election of many others, and continuing to build a durable coalition that wants America to remain the global leader in AI development."

Leading the Future has raised more than $75 million, and its Democratic and Republican affiliates have spent a total of about $34 million, according to data as of Thursday from the Tech Oversight Project. The super PAC last month announced four House Democrats and four Republican Senate candidates that it's supporting in the Nov. 3 general election. The candidates are all in races viewed as not competitive by Cook Political Report analysts.

Leading the Future isn't the only super PAC focused on AI that is spending in noncompetitive races in the last few weeks before Election Day, said Adam Kovacevich, CEO of the Chamber of Progress. The chamber is a tech-industry coalition whose corporate partners include OpenAI and other major players in AI.

Leading the Future "may think it's better to rack up friends than rack up enemies," Kovacevich told MarketWatch.

"The Bores race strategy - where one side wins and the other side loses - is higher risk, higher reward, right? Where you really go to the mat for somebody or against somebody to try to make a point, and it's high stakes," the Chamber of Progress CEO added. "So the safer ground for PAC giving is to support incumbents who are likely to win. That's just the safer strategy."

When asked about expectations that Leading the Future would try to match Fairshake's success, Kovacevich said that "in politics, you're always looking to see what worked before you." But he stressed that AI's advocates are dealing with a different situation than crypto, as there is a "much less mature conversation," and "the debate has been characterized by these state-level bills that have been passed in blue states fairly quickly." He said he thinks the AI industry faces "a different mission, and the legislation is not as ripe as it was in the crypto debate."

The Revolving Door Project's Hauser emphasized that Leading the Future is "just one part of a sophisticated, diverse and well-resourced political operation by the industry," as key AI players also rely on conventional lobbying and efforts that don't require disclosures.

The top AI companies took part in a White House meeting last week with President Trump and his aides, resulting in a voluntary accord in which the companies pledged to make sure their products were safe. Trump has repeatedly pushed back on calls for extensive AI regulations and criticized industry players who want new guardrails due to concerns about catastrophic risks.

The president also has talked up his "Ratepayer Protection Pledge," which aims to protect Americans from higher utility bills sparked by greater electricity demand from AI data centers. Some analysts have predicted that there won't be concrete policy change on AI until a new president is inaugurated in January 2029.

The AI industry has been a major driver of the U.S. economy and the stock market. One exchange-traded fund holding AI-linked stocks, the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF AIQ, is up 29% for the year, while the broad S&P 500 equity index SPX has gained just 13%.

Now read: These companies look set to face high-profile hearings and other scrutiny if Democrats win the House

-Victor Reklaitis

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10-08-26 1644ET