Layoffs haven't been this low since the 1960s. It's great if you have a job - but not if you don't.

By Jeffry Bartash

In this labor market, there are fewer layoffs, but companies are also hiring fewer people

It's hard to line up a job in the current "low-hire, low-fire" labor market.

It isn't easy for anyone looking for work now to find a job. Yet people who already have jobs probably don't have to worry much about losing them.

The evidence? The number of people applying for unemployment benefits each week has fallen to historic lows, reinforcing that companies are very reluctant to lay off workers with the economy growing steadily.

So-called initial jobless claims fell slightly in the first week of October to stay below the key 200,000 threshold for the fourth week in a row. The last time that happened was 57 years ago, in 1969, when the U.S. labor force was much smaller.

Workers who lose jobs tend to file for benefits shortly after they are laid off. They apply where they work or live, the states collect the data and the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics assembles the weekly report.

At the same time that layoffs are skipping along at historic lows, most businesses are also unwilling to bring on lots of new workers. This unusual state of affairs has given rise to what economists call a "low-hire, low-fire" labor market.

The rate at which companies hire, for instance, tumbled to a 16-year low earlier this year and has hardly improved, BLS data showed.

The rate of layoffs, meanwhile, sank to the lowest level on record in late 2021 and has barely budged since then.

"While workers searching for their first job or looking for a better one are having a hard time, those already in work have remarkably good job security," said Bill Adams, chief U.S. economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank.

The number of applications for jobless benefits is even lower than it appears if the government's formula to adjust the data for seasonal swings in employment is removed. By doing that, economists can see the actual number of claims filed each week in the states and territories.

Raw or unadjusted jobless claims slid below 200,000 in mid-July and have remained under that threshold for 12 straight weeks. That also hasn't happened since the late 1960s.

When most employees stay put, companies don't have to fill open jobs. The lack of movement in the labor market is another obstacle for those looking for work.

That's not good news for the nearly 2 million Americans who have been unemployed for six months or longer. Just three years ago, only half as many people were jobless for such a long period.

Lots of people have also dropped out of the labor force entirely. Some are baby boomers who have retired, and some are immigrants who either were deported or left the country on their own.

Others have simply given up looking for work.

Whatever the case, the percentage of able-bodied Americans in the labor force recently hit the lowest level since the 1970s, except for a brief period during the pandemic.

That's another sign of how hard it is to find a job.

-Jeffry Bartash

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10-08-26 1035ET