Prediction markets are coming for pop culture

By Genna Contino

What to know before buying event contracts around your favorite reality shows and entertainers

Prediction markets are encouraging pop-culture lovers to bet on outcomes of their favorite awards shows and reality TV competitions.

Every time I open TikTok lately, I'm inundated with Kalshi ads beckoning me to bet on "Dancing with the Stars."

I don't even watch the show (though, as a Bravo girl, I'm rooting from afar for Ciara Miller from "Summer House"), but the prediction market is targeting me anyway. Following a promotional push around the hit dating show "Love Island" this summer, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket - which are already giving sportsbooks a run for their money - are now leaning heavily into promoting event contracts around reality TV. Season 35 of "DWTS" has already generated $5.7 million in trading volume as of Monday, Kalshi told me.

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The motivation behind the ad blitz isn't hard to see: On a platform that skews male and is better known for event contracts related to sports, politics and business, there's a money-making opportunity in reaching people who are more fired up about who's favored to win "Survivor" than the World Series.

Regardless of gender, if you're getting bombarded by these ads and feeling tempted to dive into prediction markets to bet on your favorite "DWTS" contestant, or on which movie will win best picture at the Academy Awards, then here's what you should know before opening your digital wallet.

💸 People are betting millions on reality TV - and prediction markets are cashing in

If you're new to prediction markets, you should know that they differ from traditional betting in that you're wagering on event contracts with yes-or-no outcomes - like whether "The Odyssey" will win the Oscar for best picture. Those contracts are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, and the price can change to reflect the collective market's shifting expectations of how likely something is to happen. The contracts settle for $1 if your prediction is correct, and $0 if it isn't. So, since that "Odyssey" contract was trading at 50 cents on Kalshi as of Monday afternoon, that means the market believes Christopher Nolan's blockbuster has a 50% chance of winning. And, if it does, then your 50-cent "yes" contract settles for $1, effectively doubling your money.

Over the past year, the popularity of prediction markets has skyrocketed. Trading volume totaled $249 billion between August 2025 and July 2026, according to Kalshi and Polymarket data analyzed by Pew Research Center. Sporting events make up a large portion of the business: In June and July alone, sports trading volume on Kalshi was more than $58 billion, and on Polymarket it was nearly $22 billion, Pew found. And sports bettors tend to skew male, although more women are getting into the game, according to Morgan Stanley research.

So pushing contracts focused on reality TV is one way for these prediction-market platforms to attract more customers, said Alexander Smith, an associate economics professor in the department of social science and policy studies at Worcester Polytechnic Institute. "From a business perspective, if you're Kalshi [or] Polymarket, why not give it a try?to see if we can engage women in wagers that they're interested in making?" he said.

Kalshi posts on TikTok advertise prediction markets for "Dancing with the Stars," the Academy Awards and the Video Music Awards.

So far, the push seems to be working. The number of women using prediction markets is growing as the platforms expand into the entertainment space. Entertainment trading volume on Kalshi grew from $43 million for all of 2024 to $813 million in 2026 as of late September, Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said. Meanwhile, the estimated share of female traders has grown by about 40% over the past year, and women made up two-thirds of new users who wagered on "Love Island."

Almost $24 million was wagered on the winning "Love Island" couple on Kalshi, as the Los Angeles Times reported.

But there's plenty of risk involved. Between Kalshi's launch in July 2021 and May 2026, ordinary users lost half a billion dollars on the platform, a Roosevelt Institute study found.

Kalshi says it offers various risk-management tools and places accountability limits on markets in line with federal regulations. It also partners with the National Council on Problem Gambling, Kalshi's Diana said, and "firms like Birches Health" - an online program focused on gambling addiction - "to limit irresponsible trading, which is a real risk in any type of financial market with retail participants."

Polymarket partners with IC360, an integrity monitoring group that tracks problematic trading behavior and offers self-exclusion tools that allow users to voluntarily restrict or withdraw their accounts. (Polymarket has a data partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of MarketWatch.)

So, if you're ready to wager on who gets the mirrorball trophy on "DWTS" or the final rose on "The Bachelor," understand that, while reality TV might be entertainment, your money is real - so don't trade more than you can afford to lose.

And if you or someone you know is struggling with a gambling problem, you can find free and confidential 24/7 support by calling or texting the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-MY-RESET, or you can chat online here.

🔮 Looking for more MarketWatch coverage on prediction markets? We've got you.

- People under 21 can't use most sportsbooks, so they've wagered over $5 billion on Kalshi instead.

- And it's not just sports and reality TV. Young traders are also getting rich betting on things like Rotten Tomatoes scores and the papacy.

- But keep in mind that prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi often fail the average investor.

? Don't play with more than you can afford to lose

Before allocating any cash to pop-culture prediction markets or other event contracts, you need to make sure your finances are in order - and that you only play with money you're comfortable putting at risk. If you do decide to participate:

-- Never use borrowed money to wager on prediction markets.

-- Don't bet while carrying outstanding balances on high-interest credit cards or personal loans.

-- Have a budget that sets aside "fun money," some of which can be spent on prediction markets.

Only making wagers from a designated fund means you can play knowing you could lose 100% of your wager and still be OK, because you've covered your bases first.

👇Key money reads

- The latest New American Playbook installment: Young Americans facing a tough labor market are choosing to bet on themselves.

- There have been a lot of changes to student-loan policies recently, but MarketWatch's Jillian Berman explains why the vast majority of people with humanities majors can still get federal loans, despite new limitations.

- And ICYMI last week, the August jobs report shows the economy is adding just enough jobs to keep unemployment low. Here are the fields where switching jobs will pay more than staying in place.

📩 Reader tips

Send us your favorite way to save or grow your money to dontshortyourself@marketwatch.com, and we'll share it with our readers.

About Genna

I'm Genna Contino, an award-winning journalist on MarketWatch's personal finance team. I'm 27 years old, originally from South Carolina, and currently splitting the rent on an overpriced apartment in New York City with my fiancé. When I'm not writing about my hack for saving hundreds of dollars on airfare, or the four must-have money conversations before moving in with your partner, you can find me reading a celebrity memoir, overanalyzing reality TV, junk journaling, borrowing DVDs from the library or getting thoroughly humbled in an adult ballet class after a 10-year hiatus.

-Genna Contino

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