Oil prices are up 13% in a week - and could head for more than $100 a barrel

By Nora Redmond

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively collapsed as tensions between the U.S. and Iran worsen.

Oil prices rose 13% this week as the U.S. and Iran ramped up strikes against one another, raising concerns again about the global oil supply. Bank of America warned that if the conflict doesn't ease soon, barrels could reach upward of $100.

West Texas Intermediate crude's contract for August delivery (CL.1) (CLQ26) climbed more than 2%, to $80.70 a barrel, while Brent crude's September contract (BRN00) (BRNU26) advanced close to 2%, to $85.76 a barrel. Both the U.S. benchmark and the international benchmark are up 13% in the past week - the largest one-week percentage gain in four months for WTI and three months for Brent, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The moves come after six days of escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran. On Thursday, the U.S. struck Iran for the sixth night in a row, targeting bridges and civilian infrastructure, including a railway station and a maritime control tower, according to IRNA, the country's state-controlled news agency.

The U.S. Central Command said the wave of strikes was meant to "further degrade Iranian military capabilities." Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps said it retaliated by targeting U.S. military sites in Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that a tanker was hit by an unknown projectile off Oman's coast.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively shut down since attacks recommenced this week, with an already tightened supply of oil now facing further constraints.

For analysts at JPMorgan, led by Natasha Kaneva, the question isn't whether the key waterway will stay open, but about who will get to dictate the terms of its operation.

Commodity strategists at Bank of America argued that, while crude inventories are strong enough to withstand a few weeks or months of delays in the strait, if fighting doesn't abate soon, oil prices could reach upward of $100 a barrel once again, regardless of existing stock.

-Nora Redmond

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07-17-26 0819ET