Social Security is looking at a $500-a-month cut. Could a new bipartisan commission make a difference?

By Jessica Hall

Social Security faces insolvency as soon as 2032

Social Security provides benefits to more than 70 million retired workers, people with disabilities and others.

A new legislative proposal would create a bipartisan commission to strengthen the finances of Social Security and Medicare at a time when the programs that help older adults are under pressure - but such a move could waste more time as insolvency looms.

U.S. Rep. Gus Bilirakis, a Florida Republican, has reintroduced the Commission on Sustaining Medicare and Social Security Act. The bill would create an independent, bipartisan commission of experts tasked with identifying solutions to ensure the long-term financial stability of both Medicare and Social Security and providing recommendations to Congress for action.

"Medicare and Social Security represent a sacred promise to America's seniors, disabled individuals and working families who have paid into these programs throughout their lives," Bilirakis said in a press statement. "We have a moral responsibility to preserve and strengthen these vital programs, not only for today's beneficiaries but for future generations as well. The longer we wait to address these challenges, the fewer options we will have and the more difficult the solutions will become."

The proposal comes as the Social Security Trustees are expected to soon release their annual report on the overall financial health of Social Security, which provides benefits to more than 70 million retired workers, people with disabilities and others.

The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund - which pays monthly benefits to retired workers, their families and survivors of deceased workers - is projected to face insolvency and automatic benefit cuts in 2032, according to the Social Security Chief Actuary Karen Glenn and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The CBO is the nonpartisan federal agency that provides Congress with independent analysis of budgetary and economic issues.

By law, the Social Security retirement program cannot pay out more in benefits than it receives in revenue once its trust fund is exhausted. As a result, all retirees are projected to be subject to an immediate 24% benefit cut upon trust-fund exhaustion, according to a report by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB).

Applying this estimated cut to current state-level data, the CRFB estimated that an automatic monthly benefit cut would range from $459 to $556 across the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The average Social Security check for retired workers was $2,081 as of April, according to the Social Security Administration.

Last year, the Social Security Trustees projected that Social Security would face insolvency in 2033. However, since then, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act was signed into law, giving a temporary enhanced tax deduction for seniors and weighing on Social Security's overall finances.

Social Security is not going bankrupt, and the program has never missed a payment in its roughly 90-year history. However, to prevent automatic benefit cuts, Congress would need to act to shore up the program's finances.

Under Bilirakis's proposal, the commission would conduct a review of financial outlooks for both Social Security and Medicare, evaluate policy options and provide Congress with recommendations aimed at ensuring that both programs remain sustainable.

Yet Nancy Altman, president of the advocacy group Social Security Works, described such a commission as "a waste of time."

"Everyone knows the options. Congress could act tomorrow on Social Security if they did what the American people want, which is to protect and expand benefits by making the wealthiest pay in on all of their income," said Altman.

Currently, the taxable maximum places a cap on earnings subjected to Social Security payroll taxes. The threshold in 2026 is $184,500 - meaning people who earn more than that amount don't pay taxes on earnings above that level.

"Fast-tracked commissions and similar gimmicks are just efforts to avoid political accountability and enact what the American people don't want - any plan that includes even a penny of benefit cuts," Altman said.

The proposed Bilirakis commission also would evaluate whether the current formula for calculating annual cost-of-living adjustments accurately reflects the financial realities facing seniors, including inflation.

Currently, the COLA is calculated by using the consumer-price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers, or CPI-W. Some senior advocates have argued that that benchmark fails to properly account for the items older adults actually purchase, and say that the COLA should instead be calculated using the consumer-price index for the elderly, or CPI-E, which more heavily focuses on costs such as housing and healthcare.

The last time Congress passed major Social Security reform was in the 1980s, when lawmakers waited until the 11th hour to put through reforms that included gradually raising the retirement age for full benefits to 67 for those born in 1960 or later.

"By bringing together experts from across the political spectrum, we can remove partisan politics from the conversation and focus on practical, responsible solutions," Bilirakis said. "We have done this before. In the early 1980s, President Ronald Reagan and [House] Speaker Tip O'Neill worked across party lines to preserve Social Security through a similar commission process. Their efforts succeeded because they put the American people ahead of politics. I believe we can do so again."

-Jessica Hall

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06-20-26 1436ET