Rocket Lab's stock rebounds, as one analyst says the SpaceX-fueled selloff was misguided

By William Gavin

There's been much debate over whether SpaceX's public debut would lift other space stocks or suck up investors' attention

Rocket Lab shares rallied on Monday.

Investors dumped shares of other space stocks when SpaceX went public on Friday - and that was misguided, according to an analyst.

"The same macro drivers that drove the space sector's growth over the past two years have only accelerated" and are not reliant on SpaceX (SPCX) becoming a public firm, KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock wrote in a note to clients on Sunday.

Calling Friday's selloff "unwarranted," Leshock turned bullish on rocket-launch providers Rocket Lab (RKLB) and Firefly Aerospace (FLY). He sees room for Rocket Lab shares to jump 32% from Friday's closing price, and his Firefly price target implies 85% upside. Leshock nows rates both stocks at overweight.

Shares of Rocket Lab rose 6.7% on Monday, while shares of Firefly gained 4.7%.

Leshock sees opportunities for the two companies as SpaceX works toward developing and scaling Starship, its massive rocket designed for what the company calls "rapid reusability." The analyst expects Starship to be used mostly internally, launching SpaceX's Starlink and other satellites to orbit, and for SpaceX to phase out its Falcon 9 workhorse rocket.

If that scenario plays out, Rocket Lab's and Firefly's medium-lift launch vehicles could snag more of the market, Leshock argues. The companies' Neutron and Eclipse launch vehicles, respectively, could represent an opportunity worth "tens of billions of annual revenue dollars in the coming years," he said.

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There's a good reason for that. Historically, access to space has been the primary issue preventing growth in the industry. That has started to change as SpaceX, and a few other providers, began launching rockets more regularly.

SpaceX "has proved our longstanding view that if you hold the keysto space, you are going to be a dominant player," Leshock wrote, adding that "companies with their own launch vehicles will be best positioned to quickly pivot if and when the industry evolves."

Although Starship can launch much more to orbit than either of those companies' vehicles, which are also in development, most launches for third-party customers will likely be rideshare missions hosting multiple payloads on a single vehicle. Some companies prefer dedicated launches and would turn to Rocket Lab or Firefly, Leshock said.

The U.S. government, which backs the industry through federal contracts, would also like to see multiple launch providers, he said. That's why NASA has Blue Origin and SpaceX, among others, competing on lunar contracts.

"The U.S. government/NASA has been actively working to diversify its over-reliance" on SpaceX, Leshock noted. "It is unhealthy to be overly-reliant on any one company."

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Firefly's Eclipse medium-lift vehicle is scheduled to have its maiden launch no earlier than 2027. Rocket Lab, which is set to join the Nasdaq 100 this month, plans to launch its Neutron rocket for the first time by the end of this year.

"Of all of the things that I [stay] awake at night, worrying about ... Neutron demand is just not one of them," Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck said in May, according to a transcript. "The backlog is super healthy for a number of years."

-William Gavin

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06-15-26 1626ET