SpaceX is launching a historic IPO - but its biggest risk has nothing to do with rockets

By Max Motz

Elon Musk admits he 'cannot predict' when his massive venture will make money, even as Starlink revenue tops $11 billion

The SpaceX IPO is expected to be the largest ever, valuing the company at almost $1.8 trillion.

SpaceX (SPCX) is less of a space company and more a bundle of Chief Executive Elon Musk's artificial-intelligence initiatives, supported in part by its space business segment. But the company's advantage lags behind AI behemoths OpenAI and Anthropic.

SpaceX is expected to go public this week in what could be the largest IPO on record, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion. OpenAI and Anthropic have also filed confidential paperwork for IPOs in recent days, but it's unclear when investors will be able to buy shares in those companies. OpenAI is valued at $852 billion, while Anthropic is at $965 billion.

None of these companies is currently profitable. OpenAI and Anthropic are expected to get there in a few years, while SpaceX says it "cannot predict" whether that is a possibility. "We may not achieve or, if achieved, sustain profitability in the future," the SpaceX S-1 filing said.

Investors on the hunt for a purer AI play might find OpenAI and Anthropic a better fit than SpaceX, especially because they trade at substantially lower valuations and lack the Musk premium (in a good way).

While SpaceX-owned Grok is one of the most famous AIs currently available, it would be a stretch to call it the industry leader when compared with Claude, ChatGPT, Copilot or Gemini.

xAI's biggest strength is its direct access to X.com, equipping it with a real-time data stream from one of the largest social-media platforms. That helps it position itself to provide information and analysis on breaking news and fresh information more quickly than most other AI options.

The integration is also a double-edged sword. Grok and Musk's other AI products have yet to prove themselves as much in an institutional context. Enterprise products are currently more likely to opt in to other models with clear controls, compliance tooling, auditability, data-governance guarantees and workflow integrations.

Anthropic's Claude, for example, has become so widely adopted that it's helping the overall company turn an operating profit of $559 million in the June quarter, but a full-year profit isn't expected to appear until at least 2028. OpenAI, meanwhile, has more users than Anthropic and is expected to have $25 billion in annualized revenue, with the company predicting profitability by 2030.

Read: Sam Altman's toxic 'culture of silence' is an overlooked risk for OpenAI's investors

SpaceX's AI ambitions are also weighing heavily on its profitable business segments. The strongest asset is its Starlink business segment, which generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025 - about 61% of total SpaceX revenue. In comparison, the AI capital expenditure was $12.7 billion.

While Starlink has a monopoly on providing satellite-based internet services almost everywhere in the world, its scale hasn't translated to the bottom line because of the rapid expansion of data centers and the costs associated with constructing and maintaining them.

It is undeniable that Musk is exemplary at attracting capital and contracts for his company through his power and influence. The closest comparable to SpaceX may be Tesla (TSLA). While one company produces rockets and the other produces cars, they both contribute to Musk's experimental think tank. With Tesla maintaining its share-price gain of 35,279% since IPO and forward valuation multiple of 188, there is a chance that at $1.77 trillion, SpaceX's opening valuation isn't too far into La-La land.

Read: Looking to buy into the SpaceX IPO? This scary chart might make you think twice.

SpaceX could very well end up as another aggressive growth large-cap stock, like Tesla or any of the other so-called Magnificent Seven stocks. Still, risk-averse investors may want to stay clear of investing in SpaceX directly to avoid overexposure to the stock. The effect it will have on index funds and other passive investment vehicles is likely no different than the impact of the high-volatility stocks already within those indexes, and SpaceX's inclusion does not warrant a portfolio rebalance.

Max Motz is a macro data scientist at Fundstrat Global Advisors, an investment research firm. Read his disclosures here: https://fundstratdirect.com/disclosures/max-motz/.

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More: Elon Musk needs the cultish support of everyday investors to pull off the massive SpaceX IPO

-Max Motz

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06-11-26 1356ET