U.S. oil prices turn higher for the week as Trump's 10-day pause fails to calm Iran war concerns

By Myra P. Saefong and Joy Wiltermuth

Shuttering the Strait of Hormuz for 10 more days would neutralize the IEA's historic release of 400 million barrels, says BNY

President Donald Trump extended the U.S.'s five-day pause on strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure on Thursday.

Oil prices strengthened Friday, leading U.S. benchmark crude to turn higher for the week, as President Trump's latest pause on striking Iran's energy infrastructure did little to calm nerves over tightening global supplies nearly one month into the Middle East conflict.

On Thursday night, Trump extended a five-day cease-fire due to expire Friday, saying strikes on Iran's power plants and energy infrastructure would be on hold until the evening of April 6. He claimed the Iranian government had requested the change.

The 10-day extension is "time bought, not risk reduced, and markets are pricing that distinction," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.

'The barrel does not care about messaging - it cares about flow. And right now, flow risk is rising, not falling.'Stephen Innes, SPI Asset Management

"The barrel does not care about messaging - it cares about flow," he said in Friday commentary. "And right now, flow risk is rising, not falling."

U.S.-traded West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery (CL.1) (CLK26) advanced 4.5% to $98.73 a barrel, trading about 0.4% higher for the week, FactSet data show. The front-month May contract for global benchmark Brent crude (BRN00) (BRNK26) added 2.8% to $110.01 a barrel, while the most active June Brent contract (BRNM26) climbed 2.1% higher to $104.03.

Crucially, the "barometer for success" will be around oil prices, Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY, wrote in a Friday client note. Brent crude back above $110 would seem "unsustainable," he said, given risks around its ripple effects, including on the food supply.

Furthermore, if the Strait of Hormuz shipping chokepoint remains shuttered for 10 more days, the hit to global oil supplies would near 400 million barrels, Savage estimated - neutralizing the historic release from reserves announced earlier in March by the International Energy Agency.

Related: This map shows a crude ticking time bomb that hits much of the world's oil supply in April

Meanwhile, Iranian state media on Friday reported that all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will be prohibited, with "harsh measures" for those who attempt to transit, according to BBC News.

See: Iran's Kharg Island may be the next battleground, as Trump extends pause on attacking energy infrastructure

Senior officials in Tehran have insisted that no discussions have taken place with Washington. Iran rejected the White House's 15-point peace plan issued via Pakistan and instead submitted its own list of five demands earlier this week.

The Pentagon is now weighing deploying up to 10,000 more ground troops to the Middle East, according to a Wall Street Journal report, citing people from within the Defense Department with knowledge of the situation.

"While the rhetoric around de-escalation and dialogue is certainly preferable to outright conflict, the market appears to be growing increasingly numb to President Trump's verbal reassurances," Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, said.

Macquarie responded to the disruptions by upgrading its forecast for oil prices across the year, with expectations now of $83 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate contracts, up from $58. That outlook assumes that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed throughout April.

The firm said that in a scenario where the war continues through the end of June, oil prices could reach $200.

If the strait were to stay closed for an extended period, "prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand," said analysts led by Peter Taylor, head of commodity-desk strategy at Macquarie.

Opinion: Investors are snubbing Trump's Iran pause. Even his Truth Social posts may not save the market.

Nora Redmond contributed.

-Myra P. Saefong -Joy Wiltermuth

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03-27-26 1417ET