Eli Lilly's stock has crushed Nvidia's in recent weeks. What history has to say about that.

By Emily Bary

'History suggests Nvidia should modestly beat Eli Lilly over the next roughly two months,' notes a DataTrek analyst - but there are some caveats

Eli Lilly's stock has beaten Nvidia's this year, and the outperformance has been especially sharp in recent weeks.

The recent rotation into healthcare stocks and out of hot technology plays can be epitomized by the strong outperformance of Eli Lilly shares relative to Nvidia's stock.

Since the tech sector peaked on Oct. 29, Lilly's stock (LLY) has climbed about 30%, while Nvidia's (NVDA) has lost roughly 14%.

DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe expanded upon the trend in a Wednesday note - mentioning that on Nov. 25, Eli Lilly's 50-day return exceeded Nvidia's by 43.5 basis points, or more than two standard deviations away from the long-term average. That's only happened on 1.5% of trading days going back to 2010.

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For Nvidia investors, it's a potentially hopeful sign - with some caveats. "When Eli Lilly has beaten Nvidia by more than two standard deviations over any given 50-day period since 2010, the latter has gone on to outperform by an average of 2.3 points over the next 50 days," Rabe wrote.

But she cautioned that her observation was meant more to illustrate the "extreme rotation" out of the tech sector, and not to serve as a buy recommendation on Nvidia's stock.

After all, "history suggests Nvidia should modestly beat Eli Lilly over the next roughly two months, but bear in mind the chances of [Nvidia] outperforming is less than a coin flip historically," she noted - as the actual win rate for Nvidia, when looking at instances where there was a positive forward 50-date return on a relative basis, has only been 44% since the start of 2010.

Read: How Nvidia's stock can benefit from this emerging trend in AI models

Rabe also examined the recent performance of the broader healthcare sector XX:SP500.35 versus the broader tech sector XX:SP500.45. Zooming out, she flagged the healthcare sector's "highly unusual" outperformance by more than two standard deviations, which also occurred on Nov. 25. In historical instances where that dynamic unfolded, the tech sector went on to deliver 11.3 points worth of outperformance in the following 50 days.

"History strongly suggests U.S. large-cap healthcare is overbought relative to tech and the latter should outperform over the next roughly two months," Rabe noted. While trends didn't play out that way back in 2022, she implied the ongoing interest-rate-cutting cycle could benefit tech stocks nowadays.

Wednesday's price action, however, highlights a continuation of tech underperformance spurred by concerns about the health of the AI trade. Eli Lilly's stock was off more than 1% in afternoon action, whiule Nvidia's was down more than 3%.

Eli Lilly's stock has also topped Nvidia's on a year-to-date basis, with a gain of 35% versus the chip maker's 28% rise.

See also: Wall Street's lone Nvidia bear is doubling down on his call, with high conviction

-Emily Bary

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12-17-25 1428ET