Why Trump's new $12 billion farm aid package is just a Band-Aid for struggling soybean growers

By Myra P. Saefong

The federal aid is being characterized as a bridge for American farmers

The White House outlined a new $12 billion farm aid package on Monday. It could be too little, too late for growers.

The Trump administration's $12 billion aid package announced Monday may be too little, too late for American farmers - particularly soybean producers who have been suffering from the effects of a U.S.-instigated global trade war.

"I don't know a single farmer who prefers government assistance over earning their income from the market," said Shelby Bass, communications manager at AgAmerica, a nationwide agricultural-land lender.

'[M]any producers have been anticipating this support, especially soybean producers.'Shelby Bass, AgAmerica

"That said, given the current trade environment, many producers have been anticipating this support, especially soybean producers," Bass told MarketWatch via email. They have been "relying on it to manage debt and offset the impact of low prices and weaker global demand" on their operations this year.

As of early December, China had logged roughly 3 million metric tons in purchases of U.S. soybeans (S00) for the 2025-26 marketing year, far short of the 12 million metric tons the U.S. said China would purchase by the end of 2025, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the U.S. Agriculture Department.

From the archives (February 2022): China bought none of the $200 billion it promised from the U.S. under 'Phase 1' trade deal, study reveals

Furthermore, the U.S. has promised billions of dollars in aid to Argentina, which has upset American farmers because the South American nation is a key competitor given its increasing soybean sales to China.

"The aid package is a Band-Aid," said Jake Hanley, managing director and senior portfolio specialist at Teucrium, which manages commodity and agriculture-related exchange-traded funds.

China typically accounts for 60% of all U.S. soybean exports - and if 60% of your business relies on one customer, "you have a huge risk," Hanley noted. "For a more resilient farm economy, we need a diversified customer base - plain and simple."

'The aid package is a Band-Aid.'Jake Hanley, Teucrium

Up to $11 billion of the total amount will go to USDA's newly designed Farmer Bridge Assistance program, which will provide targeted, one-time bridge payments to row-crop farmers, a White House official told MarketWatch. The remaining $1 billion will be reserved for crops not included in the bridge program, with details still being determined as USDA continues to evaluate market conditions.

The funds will provide farmers with a financial bridge as President Trump's policies - including trade deals, tax cuts and a deregulatory agenda - deliver a better market environment for U.S. farmers, the official said, blaming former President Joe Biden's policies for the challenges farmers have faced.

In April, Trump announced plans to implement tariffs on most countries, including key partners such as China - which then temporarily stopped buying U.S. soybeans in retaliation, and instead increased its purchases from Brazil, Argentina and other countries.

Opinion (September 2024): Trump tariffs on Chinese goods could cost Americans, but Biden still needs to do more, writes conservative economist Peter Morici

Past precedent

While federal aid to farmers isn't new, Trump made sure to associate his name with farm aid during his first presidency, said Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart, who said he couldn't recall other recent presidents doing the same.

Trump, unlike prior recent presidents, made sure to associate his name with farm aid during his first presidency.Darin Newsom, Barchart

The USDA, during Trump's first term as president, launched a multibillion-dollar aid package, known as the Market Facilitation Program (MFP), to help U.S. farmers who were hurt by retaliatory tariffs from China and other countries.

It was initially called "Trump Bucks," noted Newsom, because the president made sure his signature was stamped on the aid checks made out to farmers, many of whom are ardent Trump supporters.

At the time, the USDA said the MFP would provide up to $12 billion in programs meant to help agricultural producers meet the costs of disrupted markets. The program was announced in late-July 2018, but farmers weren't able to begin the process of receiving those checks until September of that year, said Teucrium's Hanley.

In terms of how long it takes aid to reach farmers, Hanley said "timing varies" depending on region and county, but added that "from announcement to check in the mail [usually takes] weeks, if not months."

The MFP assigned priority based on those crops most affected by retaliatory tariffs, he added- and "soybeans are at the top of that list."

Soybean market hit hard

Overall, the U.S. farming industry faces a number of challenges "as supplies remain adequate, and often growing, while export demand remains nonexistent," said Barchart's Newsom, who is also president of Darin Newsom Analysis.

And within that industry in 2025, the soybean market has been the hardest hit, he noted.

The U.S. soybean market has become a "secondary player" on the global market due to the trade war with China, Newsom said, and this won't change unless Mother Nature gets "devilish with Brazil's 2026 crop." Brazil is now China's biggest provider of soybeans.

From the archives (August 2020): Bolton book adds urgency to Trump bid to depict himself as a China hawk and to paint Biden as a Beijing apologist

The fact that China can buy from the "most competitive market is a constant - and the price of Brazilian soybeans is still lower than that in the U.S.," he said.

On Nov. 1, the Trump administration announced a deal with China and said Beijing had pledged to buy at least 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans "during the last two months of 2025." The White House added that China would buy at least 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans each year for the next three years.

In late October, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified that China had actually pledged to buy 12 million metric tons during this season, which extends through February 2026.

Read: Here's what the U.S.-China trade truce really means for the U.S. soybean market - and for farmers

AgAmerica's Bass, who has been closely following developments in the agricultural market, told MarketWatch on Monday that there has been an uptick in U.S. soybean purchases, but not enough to indicate that China will meet the 12 million-metric-ton benchmark.

The biggest impact this year has been the "cumulative strain," she said. Since the last trade war, farmers have been hit with one major shock after another - including "severe weather events, supply-chain disruptions and a pandemic that pushed borrowing costs much higher."

After several years of that, "many operations are now working with very thin liquidity and a tougher environment for securing working capital," Bass said.

"All of this is happening as a large segment of farmers approaches retirement and starts thinking seriously about transition planning," she added. "The next few years are going to play a major role in shaping what the future of the U.S. food system looks like, and which operations are positioned to stay in it for the long haul."

From the archives (October 2019): Trump agriculture secretary says during Wisconsin visit that family-run dairy farms may not survive

Robert Schroeder and Victor Reklaitis in Washington contributed to this article.

-Myra P. Saefong

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12-09-25 0801ET