Trump says 'polls are fake' after Ingraham says people are anxious over economy. What the data says.

By Steve Goldstein

U.S. President Donald Trump says the economy is the greatest it's ever been.

A viral clip from President Donald Trump's interview with Fox News host Laura Ingraham that aired Monday night shows the president on defense over the state of the economy.

It came after a discussion of Trump's proposal for a 50-year mortgage - criticized on both the left and the right - which Trump said wasn't a big deal, just a way to pay less per month over a longer period of time, as he criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not bringing down interest rates quicker.

Ingraham then asked why people are anxious about the economy.

"I don't know they are saying that. The polls are fake. We have the greatest economy we've ever had," Trump said.

In the interview, he referred to investment - mentioning a $20 trillion figure, based on various announcements companies have made that aren't always new and reflecting plans over several years - which he credited to enthusiasm over his presidency as well as his tariff policy.

Trump also said gas prices would soon reach $2 a gallon - nationally, it's around $3 per gallon, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Gross domestic product grew at a 3.8% rate in the second quarter after a 0.6% contraction in the first, according to the Commerce Department. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast of third quarter growth stands at 4%, though many of the inputs to that forecast are missing due to the government shutdown.

Over the last 50 years, GDP growth has averaged 2.9% per quarter, with a median of 3%, according to Haver Analytics.

In the sense of size, it is the biggest ever, at a size of $30.46 trillion at the end of the second quarter. Outside of a recession, the economy is usually at a record high in magnitude.

Consumer sentiment is depressed. The University of Michigan's measure of consumer sentiment is at levels associated with recessions, 50.3 in November on a scale where 100 was the level in 1966. It's dropped 30% over the last year.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index isn't quite as bleak but still has traded in the range it has since the COVID pandemic first emerged, and well below Trump's first presidency.

Gallup's measure of economic confidence is similarly weak.

While the economy isn't viewed as strong by consumers, financial markets are ebullient. The S&P 500 SPX has gained 16% this year and sits within 1% of a record high.

-Steve Goldstein

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