Super Micro's latest financial update adds to credibility concerns

By Emily Bary

The company expects to miss its quarterly revenue target due to order timing. While Super Micro is sticking with its full-year outlook, it has a track record of guidance disappointments.

Super Micro's stock was one of the S&P 500's biggest decliners on Thursday.

Super Micro Computer Inc. expects to fall short of its prior revenue outlook, in another setback for investors.

The server maker said on Thursday that it estimates September-quarter sales of about $5 billion, whereas the company's prior forecast called for $6 billion to $7 billion. Super Micro will officially post earnings on Nov. 4.

Super Micro said the anticipated shortfall relates to "design win upgrades" that will shift some revenue into the December quarter but had previously been expected during the September quarter.

"We see customer demand accelerating, and we are gaining AI share," Chief Executive Charles Liang said in a release. The company maintained its forecast for at least $33 billion in revenue for its June-ending fiscal year, "with the expectation of delivering more."

Super Micro shares (SMCI) were down more than 7% in afternoon action Thursday to rank as the second-worst performer in the S&P 500 SPX on the day.

Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold said the announcement "does not help build investor confidence," but he thought the issue was "largely timing related and not thesis altering."

See more: A lot has changed for Intel in three months. Earnings are the next big test.

He has an outperform rating on the stock but noted that there seem to be "credibility issues" with Super Micro. For instance, Leopold's fiscal 2026 forecast calls for $31.9 billion in revenue, the consensus view is for $32.1 billion, and two-thirds of the estimates included in the FactSet analyst consensus are below management's $33 billion outlook.

"We consider our conservatism justified, but this keeps us hopeful that [Super Micro] can exceed expectations," Leopold wrote.

There have been disappointments in the past - including when Super Micro cut its fiscal 2025 outlook multiple times and when the company had to revise down its initial expectations for fiscal 2026, which once called for $40 billion.

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh wrote Thursday that despite "strong design wins" for Super Micro, he thinks Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) is winning market share among tier-2 cloud providers and enterprise customers "while seeing advantages with financing."

Dell's stock was up more than 3% on Thursday, at last check.

Read: Broadcom left investors with a mystery. This analyst thinks he's cracked the case.

-Emily Bary

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10-23-25 1320ET