This seasonal stock-market trading pattern is coming up - and worth observing

By Mark Hulbert

The Wall Street adage - 'Sell Rosh Hashana; buy Yom Kippur' - focuses on the market's performance between these two Jewish holidays

The U.S. stock market is likely to decline between the Jewish holidays of Rosh Hashana and Yom Kippur - which this year begins at sundown on Monday, Sept. 22 and ends on the evening of Wednesday, Oct. 1 (a nine-day period for the stock market that includes seven trading days).

But that doesn't mean there's anything special about this - a seasonal pattern that on Wall Street is referred to as "Sell Rosh Hashana; buy Yom Kippur." That's because the stock market typically struggles during September and October - even on days that fall outside the period between these two Jewish holidays.

The chart above illustrates this point. Looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA from its creation in 1896 through last year, the average return between Rosh Hashana and Yom Kippur has been minus 0.35%, versus a gain of 0.18% across all possible nine-day periods throughout the calendar. If these were the only two data points we had to work with, we would conclude that there is strong statistical support for selling on Rosh Hashana and buying on Yom Kippur.

But as the chart illustrates, this is a time when stocks often stumble. Specifically, I calculated the average nine-day return that occurs between early September and mid-October - the period that begins on the earliest possible date on which Rosh Hashana could start and ends with the latest possible date on which Yom Kippur could begin. Notice that the average is minus 0.30%, only slightly smaller of a loss than between the two Jewish holidays. The difference between the minus 0.30% average and the minus 0.35% average is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when assessing whether a pattern is genuine.

Here's how to think about the data: If you're someone who pays attention to seasonal patterns on Wall Street, in early September you would have already lightened up on your equity holdings - and wouldn't be planning to return to your target equity exposure until mid-October. Therefore, there would be no reason to pay attention to the "Sell Rosh Hashana; buy Yom Kippur" pattern.

Is this year different?

Another perspective on the "Sell Rosh Hashana; buy Yom Kippur" pattern comes from Doug Kass, the veteran hedge-fund manager at Seabreeze Partners, who, for many years, has mentioned this seasonal pattern in communications with clients. But this year, he's not so sure it matters. In an email, Kass said that a number of unique and ominous economic developments render "the historic message of selling on Rosh Hashana and buying back on Yom Kippur a bit academic and even out of context."

These "ominous" signals, Kass noted, include "sticky inflation, moderating economic growth, uncontrolled government spending (and a rising deficit and debt load), historically lofty valuations and a possible peaking of the AI trade." His advice? "I would sell now (before Rosh Hashana) - and not bother to buy on Yom Kippur."

Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@hulbertratings.com

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-Mark Hulbert

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09-20-25 1218ET