Can Alphabet's stock post more big gains? This Wall Street bull charts the path to $300.

By Christine Ji

Google's grip on highly monetizable commercial search queries remains unshaken by AI, setting the stage for a new $300 price target, Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney says

Shares of Google rose 8% after the company avoided a divestiture of Chrome last week.

Investors celebrated after Alphabet Inc.'s Google avoided the worst-case scenario of divesting Chrome in last week's antitrust ruling, with the stock soaring over 8% after the judge's decision. Alphabet shares are up 24% so far this year, but an Evercore ISI analyst sees more room to run.

With the uncertainty of the antitrust ruling out of the way, Evercore analyst Mark Mahaney thinks Alphabet's stock (GOOGL) (GOOG) can move further into record territory. On Sunday, he reiterated his outperform rating and boosted his price target to $300 from $240, calling Alphabet his top large-cap stock pick.

Mahaney's $300 price target is tied for the highest on Wall Street, according to FactSet data, and implies 28% upside from current levels.

Mahaney's bullish thesis is driven by two factors: the "core catalyst" of Google Search and "amplification catalysts" of Google's other businesses, such as Google Cloud, YouTube and Waymo.

Although some investors are concerned that the rise of artificial-intelligence chatbots is threatening Google Search by diverting users from clicking on ads, Mahaney believes Google Search will continue to maintain leadership even as competitors like ChatGPT take market share.

Also read: AI saved Google from the Justice Department. Here's why investors shouldn't celebrate just yet.

ChatGPT's rise certainly poses a challenge to Google, as the chatbot holds the No. 1 position among AI search tools, especially for Gen Z users, with Google's Gemini in second place, according to an Evercore ISI survey.

However, this development is offset by the fact that there has been "no material change or slippage in Google's share of commercial-intent Search use cases," Mahaney wrote. Commercial searches, or searches where users are looking to purchase products, have remained constant, meaning that Google is still the main search tool when it comes to e-commerce. This segment of Google Search is "dramatically more monetizable" than noncommercial searches, according to Mahaney.

In fact, Google Search has actually seen "modest gains" in its commercial segment, overtaking Amazon Inc. (AMZN) as the go-to website for Gen Z when buying products.

AI has also improved Google Search for users, Mahaney pointed out, which can help better retain users going forward. According to the survey, among people who have used Google Search's AI overviews or Gemini, 66% found their search results to be more effective than their previous searches.

Mahaney sees Google's current valuation as "highly reasonable." The stock is trading at a 22 times forward price-to-earnings multiple, which Mahaney characterizes as "intrinsically attractive" for the business. With continued strength in its search business and strong revenue growth through YouTube, Google should be able to grow revenues at a low-double-digit rate overall for the next few years, according to Mahaney.

"The financial upshot is a business that should be able to sustain high-teens and possibly 20% EPS growth, which we believe would easily support a 20x-25x P/E multiple and material stock upside from here," Mahaney wrote, referring to earnings per share.

-Christine Ji

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09-08-25 1230ET