Jobs gains were decent in April. But here's what Biden really has to worry about.

By Victor Reklaitis

Strategist: 'We're getting close to the period - usually in the summer - when public attitudes on the economy traditionally harden'

While presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump blasted Friday's weaker-than-expected jobs report as "horrible," plenty of analysts see it as a "Goldilocks" release - meaning potentially weak enough to help curb inflation, but not concerning overall.

Analysts also emphasized that the Federal Reserve's policy committee has been more focused on inflation than employment figures, as the Federal Open Market Committee tries to figure out when to start cutting interest rates. "Ultimately, the FOMC is going to stay on hold until they have clarity on inflation," Ali Jaffery, senior economist at CIBC, said in a note.

Voters report remaining most concerned about inflation, as well, with Election Day now just six months away. A Gallup poll released Thursday found that Americans continue to name inflation or the cost of living as the most important financial problem facing their family, as shown in the chart below.

The persistent inflation worries are a big problem for President Joe Biden, weighing on the Democratic incumbent's approval ratings.

See: Trump blames strong dollar for U.S. economy 'going to hell'

Also: Trump suggests tariffs could go higher than 10%. Why one economist is calling it 'bonkers.'

"Inflation has not been defeated; prices are still rising, perhaps not as fast as a year ago, but the Federal Reserve won't cut interest rates until fall or later," said Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, as he laid out top issues in the White House race.

"We're getting close to the period - usually in the summer - when public attitudes on the economy traditionally harden. Unless inflation plummets, this will be still another albatross for Biden," Valliere wrote in a note.

Betting markets tracked by RealClearPolitics put Trump's chances of winning the White House race just ahead of Biden's on Friday - at 43.1%, compared with 42.1%. Bettors had favored Biden from April 12 through Wednesday, but they're now back to giving the edge to the former president.

Read on: Both parties are targeting Latino voters in November. And so are waves of disinformation.

-Victor Reklaitis

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

05-04-24 1830ET

Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.