Rivian tops consensus estimates with first-quarter deliveries but stock still falls

By Ciara Linnane

Rivian delivered 13,588 electric vehicles in the period to top the 13,000 consensus

Rivian Automotive Inc. said Tuesday it delivered 13,588 vehicles in the first quarter, beating the FactSet consensus for 13,000.

Rivian (RIVN) produced 13,980 vehicles at its factory in Normal, Ill., in the period, it said in a statement.

The numbers were in line with its guidance and management backed its guidance for annual production of 57,000 vehicles in 2024. The FactSet consensus is for the production of 54,000 vehicles.

The EV maker also said it will release its first-quarter earnings on May 7 after market close. Rivian's stock was down 4% on Tuesday.

The "solid" first-quarter deliveries "should help quell some of the bearish concerns" surrounding Rivian, including EV demand, near-term impact on volume, margin, and cash flow as the company retools its Illinois factory, and longer-term capital needs, Truist analyst Jordan Levy said in a note.

"We ultimately see shares remaining range bound until [Rivian] can demonstrate sustainable gross margin improvement coming out of the Normal shutdown," Levy said.

The stock's negative reaction on Tuesday was likely because management has already told the market to expect factory downtime in the second and third quarters, related to rerating production capacity, Baird analysts Ben Kallo and Davis Sunderland wrote in a note to clients.

Kallo and Sunderland are expecting a bigger impact in the second quarter.

"With the R2 reveal in the rearview, we expect attention will shift to cost reductions and [Rivian's] goal to reach positive gross profit per unit in Q424," the analysts said.

Rivian unveiled its R2 midsize SUV in March. The vehicle can go from zero to 60 mph in less than three seconds and starts at $45,000.

For more, see: Rivian unveils its new R2 EV. Here's what you need to know.

The Baird analysts have an outperform rating on Rivian's stock and a $23 price target that's more than double the current price. But it also views the stock as "speculative risk."

Baird is expecting Rivian to produce 10,350 vehicles in the second quarter, compared with a consensus of about 13,000. It expects 12,000 in the third quarter, compared with a roughly 12,000 consensus.

For the fourth quarter, it expects production of 15,250, compared with a roughly 17,000 consensus. For the full year, it expects production to total 51,188 vehicles compared with a roughly 54,000 consensus.

The stock is down 31.5% in the last 12 months, while the S&P 500 has gained 28%.

Read now: Tesla's stock slumps as delivery numbers miss the mark by a wide margin

Claudia Assis in San Francisco contributed.

-Ciara Linnane

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04-02-24 1201ET

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