GSK lifts long-term outlook following launch of blockbuster vaccine in 2023

By Louis Goss

GSK on Wednesday lifted its long-term outlook for 2026-2031 as it predicted new drug and vaccine launches will see its annual sales hit GBP38 billion by the start of the next decade following the blockbuster launch of its new RSV vaccine Arexvy in May 2023.

The British pharmaceutical giant said it now expects to generate GBP5 billion more sales each year by 2031, than the GBP33 billion it previously said it would achieve in 2021, due to booming sales of its new RSV vaccine Arexy and the launch of 12 new drugs in 2025 and beyond.

The FTSE-100 company posted sales worth GBP30.3 billion in 2023, up 15% year-on-year, as its new Arexy vaccine achieved blockbuster status within months of launching in achieving sales worth GBP1.2 billion.

Shares in GSK (UK:GSK) fell 1% on Wednesday having increased by 7% over the previous 12 months.

The medicine maker's 2023 results were bolstered by a 23% rise in sales of vaccines, excluding those for COVID-19, driven by a 17% increase in sales of its Shingrix shingles vaccine to GBP3.4 billion and a 13% uptick in meningitis vaccine sales to GBP1.3 billion, alongside sales of Arexvy.

Arexvy became the first vaccine to be approved for prevention of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in May 2023 following its receival of a green light from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for use in adults over 60.

The company said it now has 71 vaccines and speciality medicines in its development pipeline, including 18 at Phase III or registration stage, as it predicted new drug launches will bolster its sales in the latter half of the decade.

"We are now planning for at least 12 major launches from 2025, with new vaccines and specialty medicines for infectious diseases, HIV, respiratory and oncology," GSK CEO Emma Walmsley said.

"As a result of this progress and momentum, we expect to deliver another year of meaningful sales and earnings growth in 2024, and we are upgrading our growth outlooks for 2026 and 2031," the GSK chief executive added.

In the immediate term, GSK also said it expects its sales will grow faster than previously anticipated, at rates of 7% from 2021-2026 compared to previous forecasts of over 5%, as it predicted its adjusted operating profits will rise to 11%, compared to previous forecasts of 10%.

The London headquartered drugmaker said it also expects its operating margins to remain stable, despite the loss of patent exclusivity on its HIV drug Dolutegravir from 2028-2030, as the company said it expects to see a shift towards preventative and long-term HIV treatments.

GSK also warned it may be hit with legal costs associated with lawsuits brought against the company over claims its Zantac heartburn drug causes cancer. The company vowed to defend itself vigorously against any cases.

-Louis Goss

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01-31-24 0708ET

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