Burberry shares drop as sluggish Christmas sales drive second profit warning in three months

By Louis Goss

British fashion house Burberry on Friday issued its second profit warning in three months, citing weaker-than-expected sales over the Christmas holidays, and sparking the biggest loss for shares in weeks.

The London-listed company said a global slowdown in the luxury goods market had resulted in slowing sales over its "key December trading period," as it slashed profit guidance for the full-year ending in March 2024.

Burberry (UK:BRBY) now expects to generate adjusted profits worth GBP410-GBP460 million ($523-$587 million) this financial year, down from a forecast in November calling for those profits to sit at the lower end of analysts' forecast range of GBP552-GBP668 million.

Shares in Burberry, which is best known for its iconic trench coats and tan-colored scarves, fell 7% on Friday, which would be the worst one-day performance since November 2023 if those losses hold, according to FactSet Research.

Burberry said weaker sales in Europe, Middle East, India and Africa (EMEIA) and Americas saw it generate revenues worth GBP706 million in the 13 weeks ending Dec. 30, a sum 7% lower than in the same period in 2022.

The Christmas period resulted in 5% lower sales in the EMEIA region and 15% fewer sales in the Americas, as Burberry blamed a global slump in demand for luxury goods, following the end of a post-pandemic boom.

Poor performances in those regions were, however, partially offset by a 3% uptick in sales in the Asia Pacific region, driven by an 8% in sales in China and a 9% increase in sales in Japan.

The luxury goods market has suffered over the previous year, as consumers have remained cautious about spending in the face of soaring inflation and wider macroeconomic uncertainty.

"Burberry is a company in a transition phase, so these weak indications confirm the need for a cautious approach on relaunch stories in the current market environment and a preference for quality names," said a team of analysts at Equita led by Aleksandra Arsova.

"Self-help is difficult in the best of times, and close to impossible when the market is tough. Burberry's disappointing update during the crucial fourth calendar quarter of last year is the nth demonstration of this tenet," added a team of AB Bernstein analysts led by Luca Solca.

Burberry said it remains committed to hitting its GBP4 billion revenue target for 2024, with long-terms plans to up its annual revenues to GBP5 billion, as it works to reshape its business under Daniel Lee, a new creative director who joined the fashion house in September 2022.

The world's top luxury brands regularly offload unsold inventory by selling it at a discount through outlet stores, in order to bolster their revenues.

"Burberry needs to deliver sustainable earnings growth which in the past has ultimately proved inconsistent through various strategy and brand resets. We view Burberry's mid-term revenue (GBP4bn) and margin (20%) targets as optimistic at this stage, and our estimates are materially below these levels by FY28E," RBC analysts led by Piral Dadhania said.

Lee's first collection with Burberry started appearing in stores in September 2023. The Bradford-born designer had previously worked as creative director at Kering (FR:KER)-owned Italian fashion brand Bottega Veneta, where he drove a significant uptick in sales.

The 168-year-old fashion house growth plans include a focus on "Britishness," with a view to also increasing sales of high margin handbags and accessories, while leveraging Lee's expertise in leather goods.

"We are continuing to deliver the transition to our new modern British luxury creative expression for Burberry which started appearing in our stores in early Autumn. We are still in the early stages of executing on this, which has become more challenging against the backdrop of slowing luxury demand," Burberry CEO Jonathan Akeroyd said.

-Louis Goss

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