JPMorgan's and PNC's mixed outlook on net interest income draws attention from analyst after industry gathering

By Steve Gelsi

Big lenders are waiting for consumer-deposit repricing to determine the status of the money they make on loans

Big U.S. banks have signaled that they expect net interest income to bottom out in the next few quarters as they keep an eye on whether the cost of consumer deposits will come down, a bank analyst said in a research note on Monday.

Meanwhile, bank multiples remain attractive despite some gains in the sector in the past week, analyst Ken Usdin of Jefferies said.

Usdin reiterated his top picks in the sector: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) among universal banks, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) among brokers and Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK) and State Street Corp. (STT) among trust banks.

Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) is a pick among larger regional banks, with Western Alliance Bancorp. (WAL) and First Horizon Corp. (FHN) among mid-sized banks.

Reflecting on the BancAnalysts Association of Boston conference held last week, Usdin said big lenders are waiting for consumer-deposit repricing to determine the status of their net interest income, which is the profit banks make on loans compared with what they pay out for deposits.

The cost of deposits for consumers remains "the last big hurdle" for banks to clear, while uncertainty over the cost of wholesale capital and the vitality of wealth-management units has eased, Usdin said.

The potential for lower interest rates from the U.S. Federal Reserve as well as a soft jobs report and a drop in Treasury yields in recent days bode well for banks, he said.

"Lower rates are good for capital and credit concerns, with net interest income pressure as an offset," Usdin said. "Even after the move, multiples remain attractive, but are clearly hinged to rates."

JPMorgan Chase has said its net interest income is currently higher than it will be in the coming quarter, while PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (PNC) signaled that it's expecting repricing of some consumer deposits.

"It is not clear how far past the last rate hike deposit costs will continue to rise, but there is an expectation that demand-deposit account balances will continue to grind lower and remix into interest-bearing in a higher-for-longer rate backdrop," Usdin said.

The outlook for loan growth remains muted, as banks build up their risk-weighted asset balances and borrowers remain conservative.

KeyCorp (KEY), Regions Financial Corp. (RF) and Truist Financial Corp. (TFC) said they expected capital-markets fees to rebound in 2024. Mortgage activity is expected to remain subdued, Usdin said.

Outside of office commercial real estate, Usdin said the banks see no other big credit concerns right now.

"Lease renewals will be important for determining loss magnitude in office," Usdin said. "Questions on multifamily came up in many presentations, and while higher rates do present stress on borrowers, rising rent levels in most markets have been supportive."

Meanwhile, credit-card loss rates are expected to keep moving toward "normal" levels. Wall Street will keep a close eye on the labor market for clues on the potential magnitude of consumer losses.

Also read: Citigroup pursuing 'Project Bora Bora,' with staff reductions of at least 10% in some areas: report

-Steve Gelsi

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11-06-23 1245ET

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