The stock market can't catch a break. Good news is bad news, and now bad news is bad news, too.

By Steve Goldstein

Critical information for the U.S. trading day

It's a rough time in the U.S. stock market.

Consider the reports on the economy that trickle in nearly every day. On Thursday, the Labor Department reported a decline in initial jobless claims, to an eight-month low of 201,000. That's pushing claims to near the lowest level of the cycle, defying the Federal Reserve's attempt to induce a labor-market slowdown to get inflation under control. The result: a sharp 1.6% sell-off in the S&P 500 SPX.

Then on Tuesday, the Conference Board reported a decline in consumer confidence to a four-month low. The result: a sharp 1.5% sell-off in the S&P 500.

So how can it be that both good economic news and bad economic news both spell bad result for the stock market?

Well, it suggests that maybe there's another force driving market direction, namely the surge in bond yields, which may not really be driven by the data at all.

Deutsche Bank posted this chart comparing the ratio of copper to gold to U.S. 10-year Treasury yields. The previous close relationship has totally broken down.

Their take is the rise in long-term yields is due to large fiscal deficits, aggressive central bank quantitative tightening and central banks ruling out rate cuts.

That doesn't look like it will end well, and the Deutsche Bank team say it won't, unless the Fed gets more dovish on rates or pursues a far less aggressive quantitative tightening program.

"If our cycle dating is close to correct, central banks are now actively tightening policy into a late 2000 & 2007 style backdrop," say credit analysts led by Steve Caprio, head of European and U.S. credit strategy.

If there is some good news, at least there's support for the S&P 500 at its 200-day average, which on Tuesday was 4,195.

The market

U.S. stock futures (ES00) (NQ00) were a bit stronger as the 10-year yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y fell 5 basis points. Crude-oil futures (CL.1) traded higher.

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The buzz

Durable-goods orders data is due for release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

Costco Wholesale (COST) late Tuesday reported better-than-forecast earnings but did not, as some investors hoped, raise its membership fees.

UBS shares (UBS) dropped after Bloomberg News reported there's a Justice Department probe into alleged Russian sanctions evasion at the acquired Credit Suisse.

The Senate advanced a bipartisan package to fund the government that appears to have little likelihood of success in the House.

A judge ruled President Donald Trump defrauded his banks and insurers, a decision he plans to appeal.

Best of the web

The big pharma stock trade: Weight loss is in, COVID-19 is out.

Something unusual is happening in copper markets that hasn't been seen in 30 years.

The clean-up job for Amazon's Andy Jassy just got a lot bigger after a Federal Trade Commission lawsuit.

Top tickers

Here were the most active stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern.

   Ticker  Security name 
   TSLA    Tesla 
   AMC     AMC Entertainment 
   NVDA    Nvidia 
   NIO     Nio 
   GME     GameStop 
   AAPL    Apple 
   AMZN    Amazon.com 
   NKLA    Nikola 
   MULN    Mullen Automotive 
   AMD     Advanced Micro Devices 

The chart

Goldman Sachs devotes a research piece to departing commodities research head Jeff Currie, who's leaving the bank after 27 years. One of the lessons learned from Currie and colleagues, the bank says, is to track the largest oil and gas projects. Right now the lesson learned are that the cost curve has been steepening, while output is shrinking, following project delays, cost inflation and higher taxes.

Random reads

Ride passengers dangled upside down for half an hour.

An artist who submitted blank canvases after being lent $76,000 by a museum, and called it "Take the Money and Run," was ordered to return the cash.

The optical illusion that its creator says tells if you are indecisive ... if you agree. Or not.

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-Steve Goldstein

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09-27-23 0708ET

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