Rivian, Lucid and XPeng make the list of 20 EV companies expected to grow sales most quickly through 2025
By Philip van Doorn
A screen of stocks in industries related to EVs and autonomous driving highlights companies expected to grow most quickly from elevated 2023 baselines
This is the second of two Deep Dive articles screening EV-related stocks. The first screen was based on analysts' ratings and consensus price targets. This screen is based on projected sales growth from 2023 through 2025.
Following a dismal 2022, this year has been remarkable for stocks of electric-vehicle manufacturers, for those in other industries tied to it, and for those developing autonomous cars.
With such remarkable performance this year, including a doubling of shares for Tesla Inc. (TSLA) and a 34% increase for Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN), along with an increase in its production estimate for 2023 on Thursday, it is a good time to look as far ahead as we can at industry growth projections from elevated 2023 baselines.
This follows another screen today of EV-related stocks based on analysts' ratings and price targets.
For this next screen, we again started with three ETFs that track the EV/autonomous space and related industries:
Together, the three funds hold shares of 144 companies. For a screen based on expected sales growth, we narrowed the list to 117 companies that are each covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet and for which consensus sales estimates are available for the next two years.
We looked at calendar-year consensus estimates through 2025 to see which companies were expected to have the highest compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for revenue from a 2023 baseline. We used calendar-year estimates because some companies' fiscal years don't match the calendar. This screen incorporates a significant upward move for some companies' 2023 estimates.
From the group of 117 companies, these 20 are expected to show the highest compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue from 2023 through 2025. The consensus sales estimates for non-U.S. companies are in millions of U.S. dollars, as converted by FactSet.
Company Ticker Country Two-year estimated sales CAGR through 2025 Estimated sales -- 2023 Estimated sales -- 2024 Estimated sales -- 2025 Held by
Innoviz Technologies Ltd. INVZ Israel 347.1% $16 $80 $318 DRIV, IDRV
Luminar Technologies Inc. Class A LAZR U.S. 168.9% $86 $274 $621 DRIV, IDRV
Nikola Corp. NKLA U.S. 163.8% $124 $369 $862 DRIV, IDRV
Lucid Group Inc. LCID U.S. 140.4% $818 $2,024 $4,726 DRIV, IDRV, KARS
Fisker Inc. Class A FSR U.S. 117.1% $1,085 $3,233 $5,115 IDRV, KARS
Chunbo Co. Ltd. KR:278280 South Korea 81.7% $214 $481 $708 IDRV
Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC ADR Class A PSNY Sweden 78.3% $3,109 $5,324 $9,878 IDRV
EVgo Inc. Class A EVGO U.S. 73.9% $138 $256 $416 IDRV
Ballard Power Systems Inc. BLDP Canada 63.7% $88 $140 $235 DRIV
Piedmont Lithium Inc. PLL U.S. 63.5% $212 $439 $568 DRIV
Rivian Automotive Inc. Class A RIVN U.S. 62.1% $4,282 $7,060 $11,247 IDRV, KARS
Sk Ie Technology Co. Ltd. KR:361610 South Korea 58.0% $555 $911 $1,385 IDRV, KARS
Lithium Americas Corp. CA:LAC Canada 57.6% $298 $604 $741 KARS
Plug Power Inc. PLUG U.S. 52.1% $1,278 $1,987 $2,957 DRIV, KARS
indie Semiconductor Inc. Class A INDI U.S. 50.3% $250 $402 $565 DRIV
XPeng Inc. ADR Class A XPEV China 49.3% $4,496 $7,630 $10,025 DRIV, KARS, IDRV
Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. AU:LYC Australia 44.5% $544 $777 $1,137 KARS
Li Auto Inc. Class A HK:2015 China 42.9% $15,569 $23,687 $31,790 IDRV, KARS
ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Class A CHPT U.S. 42.6% $660 $966 $1,341 IDRV, KARS
L & F Co. Ltd. KR:066970 South Korea 42.3% $4,518 $6,703 $9,146 KARS
Source: FactSet
Click on the tickers for more about each company, including business profiles.
Click here for Tomi Kilgore's detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page
For XPeng Inc. (XPEV), the table only includes the American depositary receipts (ADR) held by DRIV. But the company's Class A shares are held by KARS and IDRV.
You can see that the 2023 consensus revenue estimate sets a low baseline for Innoviz Technologies Ltd. INVZ, which tops the list. This underlines the case for doing a lot of research on your own, to form your own opinion about a company's long-term business prospects before buying an individual stock. A company at an early stage that is expected to grow its sales quickly may also be expected to lose money over the next few years.
Leaving the companies in the same order, here's a summary of opinion among analysts polled by FactSet. Share prices are in local currencies where the stocks are listed.
Company Ticker Share "buy" ratings Aug. 8 price Consensus price target Implied 12-month upside potential Innoviz Technologies Ltd. INVZ 83% 3.41 8.42 147% Luminar Technologies Inc. Class A LAZR 73% 6.71 12.50 86% Nikola Corp. NKLA 13% 2.21 2.70 22% Lucid Group Inc. LCID 42% 7.19 8.00 11% Fisker Inc. Class A FSR 33% 5.93 9.50 60% Chunbo Co. Ltd. KR:278280 90% 162,400.00 278,000.00 71% Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC ADR Class A PSNY 50% 4.25 5.37 26% EVgo Inc. Class A EVGO 38% 4.94 6.93 40% Ballard Power Systems Inc. CA:BLDP 13% 6.30 8.20 30% Piedmont Lithium Inc. PLL 100% 48.06 104.19 117% Rivian Automotive Inc. Class A RIVN 54% 24.80 28.19 14% Sk Ie Technology Co. Ltd. KR:361610 92% 96,600.00 128,043.48 33% Lithium Americas Corp. CA:LAC 100% 24.98 47.23 89% Plug Power Inc. PLUG 67% 10.91 18.57 70% Indie Semiconductor Inc. Class A INDI 100% 8.24 15.67 90% XPeng Inc. ADR Class A XPEV 62% 17.73 14.65 -17% Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. AU:LYC 77% 6.95 9.06 30%
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