Banc of California is expected to keep leading regional banks higher as PacWest deal ignites sector

By Philip van Doorn

A private-equity cash infusion is part of the merger. One analyst believes this and other factors signal a wave of deals for smaller banks.

Banc of California Inc.'s proposed agreement to acquire PacWest Bancorp. helped send regional-bank stocks considerably higher on Wednesday. But even after a two-day increase of 12% for its shares, the acquiring bank remains the favorite name among analysts covering regional players in the U.S.

The merger agreement was announced after the market close on Tuesday, but the rumor mill had already sent Banc of California's (BANC) stock up by 11% that day. Then on Wednesday, shares of PacWest Bancorp (PACW) shot up 27% to $9.76, which was above the estimated takeout value of $9.60 a share when the deal was announced. The merger deal, if approved by both banks' shareholders, will also include a $400 million investment from Warburg Pincus LLC and Centerbridge Partners L.P.

A screen of regional banks by rating and stock-price target is below.

Deal coverage:

With PacWest closing above the initial per-share deal valuation, it is fair to wonder whether or not its shareholders will vote to approve the agreement. In a note to clients on Wednesday, Wedbush analyst David Chiaverini called Banc of California's offer "fair, but not overwhelmingly attractive," and wrote that PacWest was "a likely seller before the mini banking crisis occurred in March."

While Chiaverini went on to predict the deal's approval by PacWest's shareholders, he added that he "wouldn't be surprised if there were some dissent among a minority of shareholders [which could] possibly open the door to the potential emergence of a third-party bid."

More broadly, Odeon Capital analyst Dick Bove wrote to clients on Wednesday that the merger deal, along with increasing involvement of private-equity firms in lending businesses, the expected enhancement of regulatory capital requirements for banks and other factors could lead to more consolidation among smaller banks.

He went on to write that we might be entering a period for the banking industry similar to the 1990s, "when rules were being changed and acquisitions were rampant," which "created new investment opportunities."

The SPDR S&P Regional Banking exchange-traded fund (KRE) rose 5% on Wednesday but was still down 17% for 2023, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was up 19%, both excluding dividends.

KRE holds 139 stocks, with 98 covered by at least five analysts working for brokerage firms polled by FactSet. Out of those 98 banks, 45 have majority "buy" ratings among the analysts. Among those 45, here are the 10 with the most upside potential over the next 12 months, implied by consensus price targets:

Bank                                 Ticker  City                Total assets ($mil)  July 26 price change  Share buy ratings  July 26 closing price  Consensus price target  Implied 12-month upside potential 
Banc of California Inc.               BANC   Santa Ana, Calif.                $9,370                    1%                71%                 $14.71                  $18.58                                26% 
Enterprise Financial Services Corp.   EFSC   Clayton, Mo.                    $13,871                    2%                80%                 $41.75                  $49.25                                18% 
First Merchants Corp.                 FRME   Muncie, Ind.                    $17,968                    4%               100%                 $32.38                  $37.33                                15% 
Amerant Bancorp Inc. Class A          AMTB   Coral Gables, Fla.               $9,520                    3%                60%                 $20.26                  $23.30                                15% 
Old Second Bancorp Inc.               OSBC   Aurora, Ill.                     $5,884                    3%               100%                 $16.15                  $18.50                                15% 
F.N.B. Corp.                          FNB    Pittsburgh                      $44,778                    3%                75%                 $12.91                  $14.50                                12% 
Columbia Banking System Inc.          COLB   Tacoma, Wash.                   $53,592                    4%                55%                 $22.63                  $25.32                                12% 
Wintrust Financial Corp.              WTFC   Rosemont, Ill.                  $54,286                    3%                92%                 $86.05                  $95.33                                11% 
Synovus Financial Corp.               SNV    Columbus, Ga.                   $60,656                    6%                75%                 $34.06                  $37.73                                11% 
Home BancShares Inc.                  HOMB   Conway, Ark.                    $22,126                    5%                57%                 $24.09                  $26.67                                11% 
                                                                                                                                                                                                Source: FactSet 

Click on the tickers for more about each bank.

Click here for Tomi Kilgore's detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page

Any stock screen can only be a starting point when considering whether or not to invest. If you see any stocks of interest here, you should do your own research to form your own opinion.

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-Philip van Doorn

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07-29-23 0850ET

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