Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing gauge stuck in negative territory for 11th straight month

By Greg Robb

Index hits negative 13.5 in July, while the gauge of future activity jumps to highest level since August 2021

The numbers: The Philadelphia Fed said Thursday its gauge of regional business activity inched up to negative 13.5 in July from negative 13.7 in the previous month. Any reading below zero indicates deteriorating conditions. This is the 11th straight negative reading.

Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expected a reading of negative 10 in July.

Key details: The barometer on new orders fell 4.9 points to negative 15.9 in July. The shipments index fell 22.4 points to negative 12.5.

The prices-received index jumped to 23 in July -- the highest level since January -- from near zero in the previous month.

One bright spot was that the measure of the six-month business outlook rose to 29.1 in July, the highest reading since August 2021.

Big picture: The Philadelphia Fed index is one of the first regional manufacturing gauges that offer timely reads of the sector.

The Philadelphia index is showing slightly better results than the recent trend. It had averaged negative 15.5 over the last 10 months.

Earlier this week, the Empire State index showed manufacturing holding steady at low levels in New York State. The general business-conditions index fell 5.5 points to 1.1 in July.

The ISM factory index contracted in June for the eighth straight month, falling to 46% from 46.9% in the previous month.

What are they saying? "The big picture here is that manufacturing is still struggling under the weight of higher rates and tighter credit conditions and has seen no benefit from the weak recovery in China," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Market reaction: Stocks were set to open mixed on Thursday after some disappointing earnings. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.82%.

-Greg Robb

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07-20-23 0949ET

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