North American Morning Briefing: Stock Futures Mixed As Americans Head to the Polls

Stock futures were mixed early on election day, with investors cautious

to commit to new long positions until the Congressional balance of power starts to become clearer.

The Nasdaq was edging up despite Apple and Palantir's mixed earnings after the bell Monday.

During the regular session today, the immediate impact of voting will likely mostly show up as suppressed trading volume, tight ranges, and defensive sector rotation-with the real fireworks delayed until election returns roll in tonight and Wednesday morning.

Oil rose as investors weighed fresh U.S. strikes on Iran against continuing diplomatic efforts to end the conflict, with traders now turning their attention to the midterms.

"The decisive question will be whether the midterm elections can align the political pieces to pave the way for more normal supply conditions--or push that prospect further away," Swissquote said.

Stocks to Watch

Apple slid more than 4% premarket after executives projected falling margins in an earnings call yesterday. Backblaze raised its full-year revenue outlook. The stock climbed 35% after hours Monday. Palantir slid more than 8% premarket as investors were worried about the stock's high valuation and potential AI disruption. People Inc. logged a wider loss due to MGM Resort's falling stock price. Shares fell 5% after hours Monday. Upwork lifted its earnings guidance. Shares rose 10% off hours.

Watch For:

Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey for September; Earnings from Pfizer, Apollo Global Management, Shopify, Yum! Brands, ADM, Marathon Petroleum, Advanced Micro Devices, Booking Holdings, Prudential Financial, American International Group

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

-Five Things We're Watching on Election Day -Trump Surprises Republicans With Election-Eve Speech About Reflecting Pool -Hedge Fund Elliott Warns of FOGO: Fear of Getting Obliterated in the Market

MARKET WRAPS Forex:

The DXY dollar index fell.

The prospect of a Democratic sweep in the midterms could put some pressure on the dollar, according to ING.

"Fears of tougher regulation could weigh on AI stocks (we've recently seen how that can hit the dollar), while markets could price in greater risks of decision-making gridlock around issues such as government funding and the debt ceiling."

The euro was stronger against a weaker dollar, but ING said the euro could struggle to recover more meaningfully as oil prices remained elevated and French fiscal concerns lingered.

The Swiss franc rose to a five-month high against the euro and seven-week high versus the dollar after data showed inflation there accelerated sharply in October.

Bonds:

Treasury yields rose while oil prices rebounded from their sharp fall the previous day.

This difficult environment for bonds was likely to persist for a while but yield levels were too high, Mediolanum International Funds said, adding that it was constructive on government debt at current elevated yield levels, it said.

The outlook for credit, meanwhile, will depend on whether monetary authorities react too slowly, it added. "The longer higher yields persist, the more stress credit sectors will feel." Ninety One said government bonds looked favorable given their high yields and attractive pricing.

Energy:

Oil prices were higher, but trimmed some earlier gains which came after the U.S. attack on Iran's Qeshm Island.

Despite signs of progress in diplomatic talks this week, uncertainty over regional developments and persistent threats to shipping continue to provide a strong floor for prices.

Metals:

Gold fell as a rebound in oil prices fueled expectations of higher interest rates.

Aluminum Supply

The capacity ramp up in the Middle East is expected to slow, Jeffries said, due to tough smelter economics there, particularly given the high cost of alumina imports.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Saudi Aramco Profit Surges, Offering Some Relief to Kingdom's Finances

State-owned energy giant Saudi Aramco reported a rise in third-quarter profit, offering some relief to the kingdom's finances during a period of escalating conflict with Yemen's Houthi militants.

The company's net profit rose 35% to $36.25 billion from $26.9 billion in the same period a year earlier, Aramco said Tuesday. It attributed the boost to higher crude volumes sold from maintaining consistent production, as well as higher prices of refined and chemical products.

Bayer Shares Jump After Pharma Recovery Prompts Outlook Raise

Bayer shares rose after the German group raised its full-year earnings guidance, citing a recovery in its pharmaceutical business that allowed it to mitigate market pressures at its agricultural and consumer-health divisions.

Shares in Bayer were up 5.6% in European morning trading Tuesday, adding to recent gains that have led the stock to roughly double its value over the past year.

Carl Icahn's CVR Energy Near Over $4 Billion Deal for Marathon Refineries

CVR Energy, the oil refiner controlled by investor Carl Icahn, is near a more than $4 billion deal to buy refineries from Marathon Petroleum, according to people familiar with the matter.

The deal is set to be announced Tuesday morning, the people said, assuming the talks don't fall apart.

Iran War Threatens Record Annual Drop in Global LNG Supply, IEA Says

Gas markets are facing a major squeeze, with liquefied-natural-gas output set for its steepest annual decline on record as the Iran war chokes off supplies and intensifies competition among importers, the International Energy Agency said.

Global LNG supply is forecast to fall by 3% this year, or nearly 20 billion cubic meters, as disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz-which used to carry around 20% of the world's LNG flows-and Iranian attacks on key regional infrastructure sharply curtailed exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

China's Central Bank Tweaks Forex Reserve Rules to Steady Yuan

China's central bank moved to stabilize the yuan by draining dollar liquidity domestically, after the Chinese currency strengthened to a multiyear high against the greenback.

The People's Bank of China said Tuesday that it would hike the foreign-exchange reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 2 percentage points to 6%.

U.S. Strikes Iran's Qeshm Island as Trump Talks Down War Risks

The U.S. attacked Iran's Qeshm Island on Monday, U.S. officials said, in the latest of a series of limited strikes Washington has secretly carried out against the country in recent weeks as President Trump touted the possibility of a diplomatic deal.

The assault follows comments by Trump playing down the possibility of a return to war with Iran after Tuesday's midterm elections.

Eager to Rebut Rogue-Nation Image, North Korea Denies Role in Binance Heist

North Korea has denied it was behind the record-breaking $6.3 billion hack of cryptocurrency exchange Binance, in a move analysts say is designed to push back against Western depictions of the regime as a rogue state.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation said in recent days that the regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was responsible for last week's enormous theft. On Tuesday Kim Yo Jong, Kim Jong Un's powerful sister, fired back, calling such a claim "absurd rhetoric."

America's Gulf Allies Prepare for New Round of Strikes on Iran-and the Blowback

DUBAI-America's Gulf allies are steeling themselves for a heavy U.S. bombardment of Iran that they expect to trigger a vicious cycle of retaliation against their own economic and civilian infrastructure as early as this week.

The Trump administration and Arab mediators are making a number of efforts to reach a negotiated end to the conflict. But the lack of progress paired with U.S. and Iranian threats of especially ferocious fighting if the conflict resurges are heightening concerns across the region.

Judge Rejects Charges That Ex-FBI Officials Lied About Hunter Biden Probe

WASHINGTON-A federal judge threw out charges against two former FBI officials accused of lying to Congress about their involvement in the Hunter Biden investigation, excoriating the Justice Department's case as a "slapdash job" that created political theater ahead of the midterm election.

"I am deeply troubled," said U.S. Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui in Washington. "What has transpired here cannot be described as anything other than weaponization."

Write to clare.kinloch@wsj.com

TODAY IN CANADA Earnings:

Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust Curaleaf Holdings Denison Mines Element Fleet Fairfax Holdings Fortis Inc. Intact Financial Corp International Petroleum Corp Ivanhoe Mines Ovintiv Inc Propel Holdings Rockpoint Shopify SSR Mining Suncor Energy Thinkific Labs Thomson Reuters TransAlta Corp Triple Flag

Economic Indicators (ET):

1100 Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem appears before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance

Stocks to Watch:

i-80 Gold 3Q Revenue Misses Estimates; 3Q Rev $32.7M; FactSet Est. $49.9M (1 Est.); 3Q Gross Profit $5M; Net Loss $48.4M; 3Q Loss/Shr 6c; 3Q Adj Loss/Shr 6c

International Petroleum Corp. Reports 3Q Revenue of $212 Million; 3Q Free Cash Flow $27.3M; 3Q Gross Profit $52.3M; 3Q EBITDA $79.4M; Income $59.9M

Mercer International Expects to File for Bankruptcy

Morguard: Agreement to Acquire $1.1 Billion Interest in TD Asset Management Multi-Suite Residential Portfolio Now Firm

Riocan REIT 3Q Net Income CAD 122.6M; 3Q EPS C$0.42; Net Book Value Per Unit C$24.81 at Sept. 30

Telus:New Collective Agreement Ratified by the United Steelworkers Membership

Toromont 3Q Revenue Beats Estimates;3Q Revenue CAD 1.65B; FactSet Est. CAD 1.53B; 3Q Operating Margin 16.9%; 3Q Operating Income CAD 279.3M; 3Q Net Income CAD 192.1M; 3Q Basic EPS CAD 2.35; 3Q EPS C$2.35

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November 03, 2026 06:17 ET (11:17 GMT)

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