Dow Futures Fall, Treasurys Yields Rise Heading Into Midterms

By Joe Stonor

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell and Treasury yields inched higher as investors braced for U.S. midterm elections later Tuesday.

Oil prices regained some ground after falling sharply in the last session, adding to nervy market sentiment after a fresh round of artificial-intelligence fears hit stocks Monday.

Dow futures were 0.5% lower, while futures for the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%. Nasdaq futures were flat following the index's worst three-day run since April 2025. Chip makers recovered some ground in after-hours trade, though Apple shares fell 3% as margins tightened amid higher supply costs.

Midterm elections will dominate Tuesday's market outlook. AI investors will watch state elections closely for their implications for data-center projects across the country.

Market consensus is that the election will be a so-called "clearing event" in which uncertainty is removed, though little substantive should change, Jefferies's analysts wrote in a note.

"The midterms may increase headline risk, but they don't break the dominant market narratives," they said.

Treasury yields nudged higher ahead of the vote, with 10-year yields rising 1.4 basis points to trade just below 4.910%. Two-year yields rose close to 4.600%, while 30-year yields hovered around 5.285%.

"Treasurys have more to contend with from this week's economic releases than from the election itself," said Nuveen's head of macro credit Laura Cooper.

Tech weakness late in the U.S. session Monday bled into trading in Asia and Europe on Tuesday. South Korea's semiconductor-dominated Kospi closed 3.6% lower, while Shanghai-listed stocks also fell. European indexes were all in the red.

Oil prices retraced some of Monday's sharp losses, with the benchmark Brent crude contract rising 1.6% to $106.50 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.4% to trade around $97.90 a barrel.

The dollar was little moved, while gold futures fell by more than 1% in New York to trade near $3,900 a troy ounce. Bitcoin dropped to trade near $76,400.

In addition to the midterm vote, macro data releases include U.S. job openings and factory orders for September. Advanced Micro Devices and Pfizer are among companies reporting earnings.

Write to Joe Stonor at josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 03, 2026 04:34 ET (09:34 GMT)