North American Morning Briefing: Market Rebounds But Earnings, Elections Loom

Stock futures were rising ahead of a massive week for markets and the wider

economy, as midterm elections loomed and traders braced for another heavy slate of corporate earnings.

The Nasdaq led the advance premarket, up about 0.8%, while the S&P 500 and the Dow both gained around 0.5%.

Buyers were testing the waters with early dip-buying, looking to reset positioning ahead of Tuesday's vote and another wave of high-stakes corporate scorecards.

Those earnings tests arrive fast-Apple and Palantir both report after today's closing bell, and AMD posts numbers tomorrow.

Positioning ahead of polling day was also helping push stock prices higher.

Equities historically welcome post-election clarity and often favor congressional gridlock to limit sweeping legislative or regulatory changes.

Still, with tight races and policy uncertainty on the line, the setup leaves plenty of room for near-term volatility.

Prediction markets see a Democratic sweep as the most likely outcome, Danske Bank said as the dollar fell to a one-month low against a basket of currencies and oil prices eased significantly.

"We would expect a Democratic sweep to have a modestly positive impact on broad dollar, while a divided Congress would likely lead to a very limited market reaction."

The election coincides with the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement, which will gather more attention than usual, it added.

Stocks to watch

Intel, Micron, Nvidia and SpaceX rose premarket, after falling in last week's tech selloff.

Watch For:

ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI for October; Earnings from Apple, Palantir, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Marriott International, Estee Lauder, Fox, Diamondback Energy, Vornado Realty Trust

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

-The U.S. Once Dominated the World's Oceans. China's Xi is Changing That. -How Rep. Haley Stevens Turned Against a Fellow Democrat-and Became a Party Pariah -It's a $12 Billion Election. They're Pawning Their Tools to Stay in It.

MARKET WRAPS Forex:

The dollar fell to a one-month low against a basket of currencies as oil prices eased significantly.

Investors were also looking ahead to the midterms along with tech earnings this week and the all-important nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.

ING said the dollar's potential to fall on the prospect of a Democratic sweep in Tuesday's midterm elections looked limited.

One could argue that the dollar should fall on such an outcome as it would likely lead to a gridlock on the debt ceiling, a prolonged government shutdown next year and possibly encourage Trump to pursue an even more activist foreign policy agenda, it said.

"Many of those views are speculative, however."

What isn't speculative is strong U.S. economic growth, high inflation and the Fed ready to raise interest rates again, it added.

The euro rose to an 11-day high against the dollar.

The euro's recent broad weakness could persist after credit ratings agency Fitch revised its outlook on France to negative on Friday, Danske Bank said of the announcement that came came outside the usual rating calendar.

Sterling rose to a near seven-week high against the dollar, and the euro rose against the pound.

ING said the pound faced some possible consolidation against the euro after its recent sharp appreciation but it was too early to expect a significant correction.

Bonds:

The Treasury is expected to leave coupon auction sizes unchanged at its upcoming quarterly refunding announcement, SanJac Alpha CIO Andrew Wells said.

"I think everyone is more interested in what Treasury does with buybacks."

In August, the Treasury announced an increase to long-dated bond buyback auctions through Nov. 4, so "we will be looking to see whether Treasury carries them into the next quarter."

"If it does, I'd accept that as a willingness to keep providing more liquidity support for older long-dated bonds."

That gives investors a larger outlet for selling those securities while the Fed is trying to keep financial conditions tight.

"I think the buyback pace and size deserve far more attention than the auction sizes," Wells added.

J.P. Morgan sees the risk skewed toward cutting longer-term auction sizes , though it added that it saw no valid reason to take this action.

RBC Capital Markets has been bond bearish for quite some time now and doesn't think that the structural backdrop behind the current yield levels has changed.

"Tactically, however, we think the market might well correct further, and it remains to be seen how resilient economic activity in the face of elevated rate-hike expectations and bond yields remain going forward."

Capital Economics reckons that less-hawkish-than-expected monetary policy and the bursting AI bubble would boost bonds over time.

"The good times continued to roll for the bond markets last week, with as-expected holds at the major central banks doing little to spoil the party."

"We think they will continue to stay out of the way of the rally."

Energy:

Oil prices dropped ahead of the midterms and as diplomatic discussions involving Qatari mediators over a potential deal to reopen Hormuz eased the risk premium.

However, concerns over a possible resumption of U.S. military strikes on Iran remained elevated.

"The price action in oil in recent weeks reflects a market increasingly bracing for the potential for more hostilities between the U.S. and Iran," ING said.

"Given that many of the key developments in this conflict have unfolded over weekends, the market may have to hold its breath until the end of the week."

Goldman now expects Brent to average $105 a barrel in December 2026 and $88 in 2027, up from previous forecasts of $90 and $80, respectively.

The bank estimated that a geopolitical risk premium of around $27 a barrel accounted for most of October's oil price rally, while Brent's fair value remained broadly stable in the $90s, as global inventories--a key driver of prices--were little changed.

"We now expect markets to price in a higher risk premium, reflecting downside risks to Mideast supply, the length of past major oil supply shocks, and many market participants' view that a lasting diplomatic breakthrough will be difficult."

Brent crude prices could reach $140 a barrel and average around $130 next year if Gulf oil production remains significantly below prewar levels.

Metals:

Gold futures ticked higher, but held below $4,000 a troy ounce after slumping last week.

"Gold fell to its lowest level in a year at the end of last week as oil prices surged amid inflation concerns and expectations that interest rates could stay higher for longer [...], with the selloff in technology shares adding to pressure as investors reduced positions to cover losses elsewhere," ING said.

Copper

Morgan Stanley expects copper to average $14,800 a metric ton in the fourth quarter and $14,400 in the first quarter of 2027.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Ryanair Looks to Cut Costs to Counter Higher Fuel Bill

Ryanair Holdings expects a significantly higher fuel bill for its next fiscal year and is looking at potential cost cuts to soften the blow, warning that hiking prices and pulling routes won't be enough.

The conflict in the Middle East has pushed up fuel costs for airlines around the world, prompting carriers to raise fares and trim routes at a time when many customers are holding off on booking tickets until the last minute due to economic uncertainty.

Binance Resumes Withdrawals After Suffering Biggest-Ever Crypto Hack

Binance on Sunday began allowing customers to resume withdrawals from its exchange after racing to cover its losses in the biggest cyber heist in history.

Alstom Shares Plunge After Technical Issues Prompt Guidance Cut

Shares in Alstom plunged after the French train maker cut guidance due to technical and production issues with some products, including Coradia Max high-capacity regional trains.

In the first half of the fiscal year that ends in March, Alstom said technical issues related to the Coradia Max surfaced, delaying production of the platform in the first quarter.

Micron Stock Bounces Back, but the Market Needs More as AI Fears Linger

Micron stock was clawing back some of its recent losses on Monday-but now probably isn't the time to buy the dip in the memory-chip maker, as investors continue to worry about artificial-intelligence spending.

Shares of Micron rose 2.7% to $908.49 ahead of the opening bell. They fell 2.1% last week, meaning they're were down 17% over the past month through Friday's close.

China's BYD Continues Massive EV Exports. It Isn't Helping.

It's the first of the month, giving investors another look into the Chinese car business. Domestic sales are slowing while exports continue apace.

In October, Chinese EV leader BYD sold 483,125 passenger vehicles, up 11% from a year ago. Domestic sales, however, were about 310,000 units, down almost 10%. Export sales of 170,194 vehicles rose 104% compared with October 2025. Exports accounted for about 35% of total sales. Year to date, BYD has exported 1.5 million cars, up more than 90% from a year ago.

BOE Expected to Join Peers in Raising Key Rate

The Bank of England is expected to join its peers in raising borrowing costs Thursday as it attempts to contain a pickup in inflation ahead of an intense period of wage negotiations, but may signal that it does not intend to move as aggressively as some investors anticipate.

The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have each raised their key interest rates at least once since the start of the war between the U.S. and Iran, which has raised energy prices.

U.S. Pushes to Restore Russian Gas Sales to Europe Via Ukraine

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

November 02, 2026 06:17 ET (11:17 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.