America Needs Canada's Aluminum. Trump's Tariff Exposed Just How Badly. — Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is down 1.6% to $113.95 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas falls 0.7% to 95.82 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Copper futures are up 1% at $14,481 a metric ton.

--Gold futures are up 0.9% to $4,073.50 a troy ounce.

TOP STORY:

America Needs Canada's Aluminum. Trump's Tariff Exposed Just How Badly.

SAGUENAY, Quebec-When Nazi planes were blitzing London during World War II and the U.S. needed to build more aircraft and munitions in a hurry, it helped turn this remote place in the Canadian forest into an aluminum-production juggernaut.

Thousands of Canadians labored through frigid conditions to build smelting pots and a hydropower plant to fuel them--in just 18 months. Ever since then, Saguenay's aluminum plants have supplied American industry.

Now, President Trump's trade war has cast Canada's aluminum smelters as the enemy--and U.S. businesses and consumers are paying a price.

OTHER STORIES:

Oil Prices Fall as Traders Assess Iran Diplomacy, Saudi Attacks

Oil prices fell Tuesday as traders weighed fresh regional efforts to ease tensions involving Iran against Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

December Brent crude futures fell 0.8% to $114.93 a barrel, while December West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 0.9% to $100.90 a barrel.

--

Italy's Eni Expects More Gas Drilling Offshore Europe as Supply Concerns Mount

Energy companies could increasingly look to drill offshore Europe as the continent seeks to boost its supply security following the latest global shocks, Eni's ENI operations chief said.

The Italian energy major on Monday signed contracts for subsea infrastructure and pipelines that will extract, treat and send gas to Egypt for liquefaction from its offshore Cyprus gas project. It will then be loaded onto ships and sent primarily to Europe, with production slated to begin in 2028.

--

Smithfield Foods Cuts Sales Forecast on Soft Pork Demand

Smithfield Foods posted lower third-quarter profit and revenue and said it expects continued macroeconomic pressure in the current period.

For the year, the company said it now expects total sales to be down low-single-digits from fiscal 2025. It cited softer fresh pork and hog commodity markets.

--

Woodside Energy Selling Out of Greater Sunrise Project for Up to $200 Million

SYDNEY--Woodside Energy is selling its stake in a large natural-gas project near East Timor for up to $200 million, a move that raises new questions over a resource discovered around 50 years ago but has yet to be developed.

Woodside on Tuesday said it has agreed to sell its 33.44% interest in the Sunrise Joint Venture, including the titles containing the Greater Sunrise fields, to East Timor's state-owned oil and gas company Timor Gap.

MARKET TALKS:

Soybean Futures Pick Up After Brazil-Driven Losses -- Market Talk

1030 ET - Soybean futures pick up from Monday's losses that were driven in large part by the weakening of the Brazilian real following that country's election. The USDA's crop progress report showed the soybean harvest 79% complete, up from 64% the week before and above the five-year average of 77% for the time of year. The corn harvest was 60% complete. "There's been a clearer focus on getting soybeans out of the field at the expense of corn, as U.S. corn harvest remains off to its slowest start since the waterlogged 2019 campaign," Mike Castle of StoneX says in a note. Soybeans are up 0.4% on CBOT, corn is down 0.2% and wheat is off 0.1%. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

--

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Mixed Ahead of November Expiry -- Market Talk

0951 ET - U.S. natural gas futures recover some ground at the front of the curve ahead of the November contract expiry. "End-of-month volatility risks are in play into tomorrow's November final settlement, and December may have to withstand risks of a rolldown when it becomes the Nymex front-month," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. "If support can hold, however, an overdue relief rally is possible near-term." Gas for November delivery is up 1% at $2.628/mmBtu. The December contract is down 1.1% at $2.989/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

--

Oil Futures Move Lower With Diplomacy in View -- Market Talk

0949 ET - Crude futures are lower in choppy trading as the market keeps an eye on diplomatic efforts to ease tensions across the Middle East and in Russia-Ukraine. "Crude futures are correcting further on news that more negotiations with both Iran and Russia-Ukraine look to be materializing," Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. "While the prospect of peace in both areas is keeping some downside pressure on prices near term, the facts remain of tight global supplies and the increasing U.S. military presence in the Persian Gulf." On the upside are continued Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia, he adds. WTI is off 0.6% at $101.14 a barrel and Brent is down 0.8% at $114.89 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

--

Pipelines Can't Replace Hormuz Shipping for Iraq Oil Exports, Analyst Says -- Market Talk

1328 GMT - The building of alternative pipelines to export Iraqi oil is no substitute for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iraq energy expert Howar Talabany."Pipelines are a good way to diversify but it cannot replace a port, because you are still at the mercy of another country that has its own domestic requirements," she says. The Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline network offers an alternative passage for Iraqi oil through the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, but comes with risks. "Pipelines are much easier to target than ships as they are stationary infrastructure, which makes them very exposed," she adds. (joseph.wilkins@wsj.com)

--

UBS Raises Brent Crude Price Forecast on Middle East Shipping Threats -- Market Talk

1322 GMT - UBS raised its Brent crude forecast for this year and next as Middle East flows are threatened by persistent attacks on shipping. "Higher oil flows have not translated into a normalization of the market," says strategist Giovanni Staunovo. "Vessels remain exposed to attacks, insurance and freight costs have risen sharply, and increased ship-to-ship transfers required to cross the Strait of Hormuz are absorbing tanker capacity." UBS now forecasts Brent at $110 a barrel by the end of 2026 from $100 a barrel previously. It also lifted its forecasts for next year by $10 a barrel, saying it sees the global oil benchmark at $95 a barrel in March, $90 a barrel in June and $85 a barrel in September. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

--

Palm Oil Ends Lower as Inventory Concerns Linger -- Market Talk

1012 GMT - Palm oil prices ended lower amid continued concerns over elevated Malaysian inventories and expectations for strong October production, despite improving export demand, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Ng expects CPO futures to find support around 4,650 ringgit a ton and face resistance at 4,850 ringgit a ton, with traders closely monitoring soybean oil and crude oil prices for further direction, he adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for January delivery ended 87 ringgit lower at 4,702 ringgit a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

--

Mideast Crude Exports Hold Above Prewar Levels Despite Weaker Hormuz Flows -- Market Talk

0910 GMT - Oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz remain significantly below prewar levels, but broader Middle Eastern crude exports to international markets have proved resilient, running above prewar levels despite heightened geopolitical risks. According to data provider Kpler, the seven-day average of Hormuz oil flows stands at 9.34 million barrels a day, around 54% of the prewar baseline of 17.15 million barrels a day. Still, non-Iranian Middle Eastern crude supplies to international markets averaged 16.7 million barrels a day so far in October, compared with 16.3 million barrels a day before the war. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

--

Gold Falls as Investors Await Fed Meeting -- Market Talk

0850 GMT - Gold prices hover around $4,000 a troy ounce as investors await the Federal Reserve's meeting for more cues on the direction of interest rates. In early European trading, futures in New York fall 0.7% to $4,008.30 a troy ounce. "Bullion remains under pressure following last week's decline, reflecting elevated Treasury yields and expectations that U.S. interest rates could remain restrictive," says Naeem Aslam from Zaye Capital Markets. The U.S. dollar index--which measures the greenback against a basket of other currencies--is up 0.2% to 102.15, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for overseas buyers. Markets also await Personal Consumption Expenditures figures, the central bank's preferred inflation gauge, due on Thursday. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

--

Oil Rebounds, With Focus on Middle East Diplomatic Efforts -- Market Talk

0837 GMT - Oil prices rebound in early European trading after falling earlier in the session, as traders focus on diplomatic efforts to avert further escalation between the U.S. and Iran. The December Brent crude contract, which expires on Friday, is up 0.9% to $116.85 a barrel, while WTI futures rise 0.9% to $102.73 a barrel. A sustained decline in prices would likely require credible signs of de-escalation from all sides involved in the conflict and tangible progress toward restoring safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, "upcoming elections in the U.S. and Israel add another layer of uncertainty, potentially complicating diplomatic efforts and keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices," analysts at Saxo Bank say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

--

Galp Energia's Solid Performance Overshadowed by Aborted Moeve Deal -- Market Talk

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

October 27, 2026 12:28 ET (16:28 GMT)